Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | +112 |
| Red Sox Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN |
| Odds as of Monday morning and via PointsBet. | |
After winning the opening game then losing the next two, the Boston Red Sox will look to split this series with the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night.
In the highly-competitive AL East, the Red Sox are in second place with a 39-27 record while the Blue Jays are in third place with a 33-30 record. After Sunday’s 18-4 Blue Jays romp, the Red Sox look vulnerable despite having a better record.
The question is, with veteran starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi, are the Red Sox worth backing as slight favorites against rookie Alek Manoah and the Blue Jays?
Toronto Blue Jays
The hardest part about handicapping Monday's game is in trying to project Manoah’s performance. Before this season, he had only six career starts all at the Single-A level. This season, Manoah had only three Triple-AAA starts, during which he pitched well.
After getting called up to the majors a few weeks ago, Manoah’s record has been mixed. In his first start against the Yankees, he pitched six shutout innings and allowed only two hits. In his second start against the Marlins, Manoah pitched for only 3 1/3 innings and allowed four earned runs. In his last start, he pitched for five innings against the White Sox, allowing only one earned run.
After three starts, Manoah has a 1-0 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 4.55 xFIP.
Manoah appears to have a decent record, but he has a negative WAR of -0.1. And based on what little we know so far, it appears that the Blue Jays are vulnerable during his starts.
While Toronto might allow many runs on Monday night, the Blue Jays are also likely to produce runs as well. Currently, their lineup averages 5.1 runs per game, the third-most in the league.
With a lineup that features AL MVP candidate 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr, the Blue Jays have a chance against Eovaldi and the Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox
One reason the Red Sox have done well this year is because of Eovaldi’s strong performance. In 13 starts, he has a 7-3 record with a 4.11 ERA and a 3.62 xFIP. Currently Eovaldi is averaging almost 5 2/3 innings per start, which limits the number of opportunities for Toronto’s lineup to put runs on the scoreboard.
At 2.2, Eovaldi has the second-best WAR among all Red Sox players and the best WAR among all Red Sox pitchers.
Backing up Eovoldi is a Boston lineup that is almost as good as Toronto’s. Currently, the Red Sox average 4.95 runs per game, which is the seventh-best in the league.
With J.D Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, the Red Sox have a strong offensive core that should give Manoah and the Blue Jays some trouble.
Blue Jays-Red Sox Pick
Even after Toronto’s unforgiving 18-4 performance on Sunday, I like the Red Sox against the Blue Jays.
The Red Sox have a strong lineup as well, and they have their best pitcher in Eovaldi on the mound. He should do well against Toronto, which is why I like Boston at -125 and I would bet the Red Sox up to -130.
Pick: Red Sox -125 at PointsBet
