Brewers vs. Dodgers Odds
| Brewers Odds | +200 |
| Dodgers Odds | -250 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Dodgers have now won four of five games after torching Corbin Burnes — the reigning Cy Young Award winner — for seven runs in Tuesday's showdown. Now, they'll take aim at arguably the worst starter that Milwaukee has to offer to lock up a series win in Wednesday's meeting.
After last night's shellacking, is there any stopping the Los Angeles? Let's get into how to bet this contest.
Milwaukee Brewers
If Burnes, who entered Tuesday with a 2.48 ERA, can surrender seven runs, what will Adrian Houser do? The right-hander has been pretty hitter-friendly this season, coming into this start with a 4.72 ERA in 15 starts.
Houser likes to throw his sinker and pitch to contact, but it couldn't be going much worse for him at the moment. He owns a .368 xwOBA on contact (which is league average) with a 39.9% hard-hit rate (4.1% worse than league average) overall.
On top of the quality of contact, though, let's talk about the type of contact. Houser's ground ball rate has cratered from 59.9% and 60.5% in the last two seasons to 48.8% this year.
That's going to make it very tricky for Houser to keep Los Angeles off the board, plus the Brewers' offense is going to make a win almost impossible for the righty.
Milwaukee has been one of the worst offenses in baseball over the last two weeks, ranking second-worst in wRC+ over that span, and to make matters worse this lineup ranks 26th in wRC+ to lefties with a dastardly 25.8% strikeout rate.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Andrew Heaney will be the lefty going for the Dodgers, and it has to be said no one can quite figure out what's coming next out of the veteran. Heaney has pitched to a 1.77 ERA out of nowhere this season with the Dodgers after debuting back in 2014 to much fanfare and falling right on his face.
Though the lefty owns a 3.37 xERA to this point with a high 45.2% hard-hit rate, Heaney has still done well to strike out a high 34.2% of the hitters he's faced. His barrel rate and pretty much all of his expected stats are right where you'd expect, but the punchouts have helped Heaney look like a big-league pitcher.
As for this Dodgers offense, I really don't know what more I can say. They're the best team in the league at hitting fastballs, scoring 0.81 weighted runs per 100 pitches, and in the last two weeks they own a 129 wRC+ which has lifted them to great heights.
Los Angeles has slugged 22 home runs and have walked 10.1% of the time with a 23.3% strikeout rate, making them the kings of the three true outcomes.
Brewers-Dodgers Pick
By far, the biggest edge I see is the Brewers' huge strikeout dilemma against left-handed pitching. To make matters, worse, they're up more than 27% in the last two weeks.
You need to make contact off of Heaney to actually expose him for being the bad pitcher that he is, and that's something that's going to be tricky.
With that, I'm going to snag Los Angeles on the Run Line. I just don't see any way into this game for Milwaukee, given the pitching matchup and with how badly the club has hit lately.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-120)
