Diamondbacks vs Cubs Odds, Pick & Prediction (7/19)
| Arizona Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line (Spread) | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | +120 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line (Spread) | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | -140 |
Justin Steele might have been one of the best pitchers in the National League who didn't make the All-Star Team. He has maintained a low walk rate and barely allows hard contact. He is a consistent arm the Chicago Cubs can trust in every five days.
His opponent on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field will be Ryne Nelson and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Nelson has been serviceable, but otherwise, he has only truly limited walks. He struggles with allowing hard contact and rarely strikes anyone out.
The Cubs have been better against righties and carry a comparable bullpen with an edge at home, so look for Steele to continue the consistency. Read further for my Diamondbacks vs Cubs betting preview for Friday, which includes my betting prediction.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Nelson has a 4.98 ERA against a 4.60 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is above 90 MPH with a below average groundball rate and Hard-Hit Rate in the 37th percentile. He only walks 5.3% of batters, but his strikeout rate is alarmingly bad at only 15.6% which has been an issue for a couple of years. He may not accrue pitches quickly, but since the Cubs have handled righties well, an early exit is not out of the question.
The D-Backs have actually hit lefties worse than righties in the past month. They have a 104 wRC+ with a 9.6% walk rate and 23.5% strikeout rate. They also have six bats above a .320 xwOBA, but two of those only have seven plate appearances against lefties in the last month. Basically, Steele should only really be concerned about half of the Arizona lineup.
Arizona's bullpen is a little better in that same time frame than the Cubs’. That said, its 3.80 xFIP may not tell the whole story. Arizona has five arms under a 4.00 xFIP, which is comparable to Chicago.
Chicago Cubs
Steele is a solid arm, posting a sub-3.00 xERA and ERA, so expectations are that he should continue his sharp pitching. His strikeout rate is 23.5% against a walk rate under 6% and his Average Exit Velocity is 87.6 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 71st percentile. Since he has an above average ground-ball rate, he is exactly what a team needs to anchor the starting rotation.
The Cubs have a 120 wRC+ off of righties in the past month with an 8% walk rate and 24.5% strikeout rate. They may have four bats above a .320 xwOBA, but there are a few others just below. The top of the order should be much more potent than Arizona’s, since Chicago gets to face the weaker starting pitcher.
Ian Happ, in particular, has been great in the middle the order, so he should have a good matchup in this one with Nelson.
The Cubs’ bullpen has a combined xFIP in the last month just above 4.00. However, they have three arms under a 4.00 xFIP and a few right above. That said, Steele has shown the ability to pitch deep into games, and since Nelson will be his counterpart, fans should expect Arizona to dig into their bullpen more quickly, and thus, negate any semblance of a relief edge.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Cubs get the home field advantage and have a much better pitcher on the hill. They should not have to use too many bullets in relief, and if the top of the order hits like it has against righties, Nelson will have a short stay on the bump.
Take the Cubs to win this one at home and put up some offense with the ace of their staff at the helm. Bet them from -104 to -130. Nelson is getting far too much credit for what he can do.
