Dodgers vs Astros Odds & Predictions
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -195 |
| Houston Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +162 |
The Dodgers and Astros will kick-off an exciting interleague matchup Friday at Minute Maid Park. Based on recent form, a 2017 World Series rematch taking place this fall is looking more realistic, and the Astros now hold a one-game lead in the AL West over the Mariners.
The Dodgers are slight road underdogs in the opener — +105 on the moneyline on Caesars Sportsbook — as Gavin Stone (3.19 ERA, 101 and 2/3 IP) matches up against Framber Valdez (3.64 ERA, 104.0 IP).
Let's dive into my Dodgers vs Astrosprediction for Friday, July 26.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Astros have gone 28-21 at Minute Maid Park this season, and scored generated an average of 5.08 runs scored per game. Still, in splits against right-handed pitching over the last month of play, they will be the first side out of the leagues top-third that Stone has faced since June 26th.
Outside of two ugly outings versus the Phillies and Diamondbacks, Stone has remained in a fairly strong form and continues to hold a strong underlying profile.
Over the last five starts Stone has pitched to an ERA of 3.67 with an xFIP of 3.70. He has been hard-hit 36% of the time in that span, and pitched to an xBA of .247. He has struck-out 7.67 batters per nine over that span, which is up slightly from his season average.
Most Chases:
Joe Mantiply: 74 Chases
Max Scherzer: 65 Chases
Jordan Montgomery: 64 Chases
Reese Olson: 63 Chases
Cristopher Sanchez: 62 Chases
Gavin Stone: 61 Chases
Josh Fleming: 61 Chases
Jose Butto: 61 Chases
Cole Ragans: 60 Chases
Garrett Crochet: 60 Chases— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) July 26, 2024
Opponents hold a hard-hit rate of just 35% against Stone's fastballs, which is the third-best mark among qualified starters this season. He is also among the lowest in qualified starters in terms of barrel-rate at 4.8%.
The Dodgers own the highest wRC+ against left-handed pitching in baseball this season with a mark of 122. That mark has tailed off considerably of late though, as over the last month Los Angeles holds a wRC+ of only 87 against lefties with a .288 wOBA. It does own an eighth ranked 0.51 BB/K with a sixth ranked 33% hard-hit rate, and a 29th ranked .256 BABIP looks due for positive regression.
Houston Astros
In six of Framber Valdez seven MLB seasons he has outperformed his xERA, including this season in which he holds a 3.63 ERA compared to a 3.97 xERA. He ranks in the third percentile with a 48.3% hard-hit rate, but has also generated ground-balls 60.5% of the time.
Since the 2022 season, Valdez has generated ground-balls 65% of the time with runners in scoring position. This season, Valdez holds a 63% ground-ball rate with RISP, which ranks second among qualified starters. Since last season Valdez has induced batters into 45 double plays in 249 opportunities.
Valdez has remained in steady form ahead of this matchup. Over his last five starts he has pitched to an ERA of 2.97 with an xFIP of 3.01. He has also struck-out 9.49 batters per nine innings in that span.
The Astros have hit to a 16th-ranked wRC+ of 102 versus right-handed pitching over the last month, with an OPS of .716. They hold a hard-hit of just 27.6% in that span.
Dodgers vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these offenses are in strong form entering this matchup, and the Dodgers have been the best team in the league against lefties. That seems to be making the over a trendy play, but a betting total actually looks high to me considering the starters in this matchup.
Valdez features some underlying statistics which suggest he might slow down moving forward. That has also been the case for most of his career though, and he continues to generate a ton of ground balls at the right moments which to help overachieve expectations in terms of ERA.
Stone came out of the All-Star break with a solid start against the Red Sox, and has pitched to steady underlying results over the last month of action despite two ugly performances. The Astros have been a middle of the pack offense against RHP over the last month, and have really just been feasting on lefties over that span.
There looks to be value targeting a lower scoring matchup here. The Dodgers bullpen has been shaky enough that I want to isolate the Stone versus Valdez innings as opposed to the full game total. At anything better than -110 I see value backing the first five innings to stay under 4.5.
