The Mets will look to bounce-back from an ugly 9-0 loss in Sunday's series opener. While they are still are still +120 underdogs, this is one of the more favorable pitching matchups they will have in this series as Sean Manaea takes on the Dodgers bullpen.
I'll outline my three leg Dodgers vs Mets parlay paying out at +260 below.
Dodgers vs Mets MLB Picks: Parlay for Game 2
- Dodger vs Mets Under 8.5 Runs (-127)
- Sean Manaea Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-170)
- Sean Manaea Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-160)
Parlay Odds: +260 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Under 8.5 Runs
Under 8.5 Runs
Sean Manaea has followed up his fantastic second half with quality postseason starts, in which he has allowed just three earned runs across 12 innings. Across his last ten starts Manaea holds an ERA of 3.25, and a K-BB% of 22.6.
He has reduced his zone-contact rate to 81.6%, and increased his swinging strike rate to 12.4%. Manaea adjusted his arm slot in late July, and has been mixing in a new-look sinker which has been effective.
Dodgers relievers finished the regular season in great form, pitching to a 3.07 ERA in the final month. They have carried that high level into the postseason, as in 24 and 1/3 innings of work, mainly versus an elite Padres offense, they have achieved an ERA of 2.22.
Given Dave Roberts decision to throw a bullpen day here it's not surprising to see that the bullpen is in good shape, as Evan Phillips is the only Dodgers reliever to throw more than nine pitches over the last three days.
A total of 8.5 at Dodger Stadium looks a touch high in this spot, and a bet on the under is a good way to kick off our three leg parlay.
Note: The total for this game dipped to 8 (-105 for the under) since this was written. You can get the alt under for 8.5 at -127.
Sean Manaea Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Sean Manaea Under 5.5 Strikeouts
This play is negatively correlated with the under, but does boost the payout significantly as a result. The Mets bullpen pitched to a seventh-best xFIP in the second half of the season, and 3.81 xFIP over the past month. Manaea allowed a .430 slug-rate when facing the order for a third time this season, compared to marks of .304 and .324 respectively first and second time through the order.
For those reasons Manaea still won't get an overly long leash here, and I think can come in under this relatively high total of 5.5 without the game being high scoring fairly often.
The Dodgers have struck-out just 20.3% of the time versus lefties in the second half, and held a .337 OBP. Manaea holds a 25% strikeout rate in his last 12 games, and has gone over 5.5 in seven of those matchups. 7/12 isn't that high of a hit rate when you consider how much easier an average team is to strikeout though, and that in today's matchup he could get a shorter leash.
Sean Manaea Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Sean Manaea Under 2.5 Earned Runs
As explained above, I believe Manaea can have a fairly solid start in this matchup and still not end up pitching too deep into the game. While this pick works against our under 5.5 strikeouts, it obviously correlates heavily with the game total coming in under 8.5 runs.
Manaea has allowed a batting average of just .171 in his last 222 PA's, with an xBA of .207. He has allowed an xFIP of 3.49 in that span, and reduced his hard-hit rate to 31%. It's realistic for Manaea to keep the Dodgers from earning three runs here, while still coming in below a total of 5.5 strikeouts.
