Here are two +EV player props to take you into the weekend — one pitching prop and one position player prop.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Kyle Wright under 5.5 Strikeouts (-113)
| Diamondbacks @ Braves | |
| First Pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Kyle Wright is a good young pitcher. But he's been trending down slightly in recent starts, having posted a 3.18 ERA and a 3.76 FIP since the calendar flipped to June.
Not bad numbers by any means, but the strikeouts have dipped considerably. Wright's cracked 5.5 strikeouts just once in the last six starts, picking up 27 in total but striking out eight against the strikeout-happy Angels.
Wright uses a solid five-pitch mix even if he relies more on his curveball than anything. There is a definite downward trend among almost every pitch throughout this season.
Wright faces the Diamondbacks today, who have been quietly trending way up in terms of plate discipline. The Diamondbacks have struck out just 17.5% of the time over the past month, a number only bested by Cleveland during the stretch. The D'backs' wRC+ is up to 104 during the stretch as well.
Plus, of the last five pitchers the Diamondbacks have faced, only Carlos Rodon has gone over his listed strikeout total.
Given the recent trends, I believe Wright is slightly overvalued and the D'backs are slightly undervalued. And I love that we get to bet under 5.5 Ks instead of the normal 4.5.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Wright for 4.7 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections put him at 4.9. Either way, there's good value on the under here.
Pick: Under 5.5 Ks (-113)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Jose Altuve over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
| Mariners @ Astros | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Jose Altuve is actually in a mini-slump. He's just 11-for-45 with a .644 OPS over his last 10 games, having cashed his bases total just three times during the stretch.
However, I like Altuve's chances a lot today.
First, Altuve's got a good matchup against Robbie Ray. Ray has regressed in a big way after his Cy Young season, having barely cracked a 4.00 ERA while his FIP has gone up half a run. While his peripherals indicate those numbers should come down (3.50 xERA, 3.47 xFIP), it's becoming clear last season was an anomaly.
In 23 lifetime PAs against Ray, Altuve is a whopping 11-for-19 with six extra-base hits. Altuve has also struck out just once, whiffed only 8.6% of the time, and produced a 95.1 mph avg. exit velocity on those batted balls.
When you make contact, and it's often hard contact, you're going to pile up base totals.
Altuve has mashed lefties this year. He's produced a whopping .391 ISO with a ridiculous 201 wRC+ against southpaws, having picked up 18 extra-base hits in just 95 PAs.
Altuve has also killed the Mariners over the last few divisional series. He's cashed his bases total in five of the last seven games against Seattle, picking up 23 total bases across those seven games.
I think Altuve mashes Ray and the Mariners once again on Friday.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+120)
