Giants vs Braves MLB Parlay: Thursday SGP Picks (July 4)
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The Giants and Braves conclude a three-game set on Thursday, and we'll see if the Fourth of July provides fireworks.
Let's try to craft the perfect Giants vs Braves Same Game Parlay to improve your holiday.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Giants vs Braves MLB Parlay: Thursday SGP Picks (July 4)
- Giants ML (-120)
- Matt Chapman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Logan Webb Over 5.5 K's (-110)
Parlay Odds: +525 (DraftKings)
After winning game one against the Braves, the Giants dropped game two, as Chris Sale diced up their offense for nine K's across six innings.
There's no shame in losing to Sale, but Charlie Morton is a favorable matchup for the Giants.
The Giants offense ranks eighth in walk rate and 17th in strikeout rate. They rarely beat themselves by swinging out of the zone and taking their walks. That's not ideal for Morton, who ranks in the 24th percentile among qualified pitchers in walk rate and will gladly use his looping curveball if hitters chase it early. The issue for Morton is when teams don't chase the curveball, it can lead to walks.
There isn't any real star power in this current Giants lineup. However, Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman, and Heliot Ramos form a fairly reliable top-of-the-order trio, with Patrick Bailey adding some timely hits.
I saw how Marcus Stroman's sinker-slider mix slowed down the Braves offense when they trotted down to the Bronx, and Logan Webb should attack similarly.
The Giants ace comes into Thursday's outing boasting a 3.12 ERA with a 2.76 FIP, so it's the ideal time to buy on Webb. Opponents hit Webb harder, as his average exit velo ranks in the 18th percentile. But, it doesn't matter how hard the ball is if it's on the ground, and Webb ranks in the 99th percentile in ground-ball rate.
Webb's pitching causes problems for the Braves en route to a Giants win.
Taking a Giants batter prop is tough since Bob Melvin platoons four or five hitters in the lineup, depending on the pitcher, so getting pinch-hit for is relatively likely.
The good thing? I wanted a Matt Chapman bases prop, and Melvin wouldn't dare replace the scalding hot third baseman.
It's a yearly tradition — Chapman goes through a few months where he can't get a hit and a few where he's among the top hitters in MLB. We're on track, as Chapman owns a 130 wRC+ since June 15th and is batting .333 with a .506 SLG in his past seven games.
Chapman has a very appealing statcast page. Most hitting categories hint at red, meaning Chapman is above average. Better yet, most red colors are hard-hit metrics, ranking 76th percentile in xSLG, 91st percentile in average exit velocity, 84th in hard-hit rate, and 82nd in barrel rate. Those are just more complex versions of "Chapman makes quality contact."
While Chapman hits only .208 against righties, his hot streak could put the righty-hitting woes in the past.
I'm rolling with Webb's strikeout prop for the final SGP leg, as it's a parlay centered around the Giants.
I mentioned Webb's ground-ball prowess earlier, but Webb isn't someone who needs ground balls to succeed. The best part of Webb's game is how many innings he eats. He's surpassed six frames in 11 consecutive starts, striking out at least six batters in seven — he can rack up punchouts.
The Braves strike out at the 10th-highest rate (23.7%). If Webb records at least six innings, it's hard to envision him not reaching six strikeouts against this Braves lineup with several high-strikeout hitters. Webb already went seven innings in starts against the Dodgers and Yankees, adding at least six strikeouts in both starts.
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