Guardians vs. Mariners Odds
| Guardians Odds | -115 |
| Mariners Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-125 / +105) |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
One of the hottest teams in baseball rides into Seattle this weekend for a four-game set with the upstart Mariners in what is a potential playoff preview.
To start things off, Cleveland will trot out its ace against one of Seattle's many talented young pitchers in Friday's showdown.
So, where can we find an edge here? Let's get into it.
Cleveland Guardians
Shane Bieber will get us going, and while he has lost a bit of his luster, the standout pitcher is still very much a force to be reckoned with. His strikeout rate is way down from 33.1% to 24.7%, but he's lowered his xwOBA on contact to .360 and his walk rate all the way to an elite number at 5.5 percent.
The right-hander has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last five starts, three of which went seven frames and none of which were shorter than six-inning outings. Bieber has mowed down two solid offenses in Toronto and the White Sox in his last two starts, striking out 26 in 26 1/3 innings this month.
If there's a trouble spot here for Bieber it's his fastball, which has been hit to a .316 xBA. Considering he only throws it 34.4% of the time, that might not be the biggest deal in the world.
Cleveland has done pretty well for itself offensively in the last two weeks of play. It sits 10th in wRC+ with a somewhat solid .137 ISO and a 17.9% strikeout rate which is second-best in baseball during that time.
Seattle Mariners
Logan Gilbert is terrified reading the above paragraph. The righty owns an unsightly 46.8% hard-hit rate on the year and a mark of 45.8% for his young two-year career. For reference, league average is 35.8 percent.
That's part of the reason he's got a 4.26 xERA this season, and the other part of the equation would be a meek 21.9% strikeout rate which checks in under league average and worse than the 25.4% clip he was sitting down hitters in his short time in the bigs last year.
Gilbert, unlike Bieber, has been able to get outs with his fastball. It has a good 23.3% whiff rate and he's used it as his put-away pitch 20% of the time, according to Statcast. It has been hit to the tune of a .263 average and just a .267 xBA this season.
Offensively, Seattle has just about matched Cleveland stride for-stride. It has the eighth-best strikeout rate in the last two weeks and owns the seventh-best wRC+ overall. It does rank a mediocre 13th in weighted runs per 100 fastballs, however, and that mark is actually all the way down in 20th over the second half of the season.
Guardians-Mariners Pick
It's hard to see it coming together for the Mariners at the plate if they're unable to hit fastballs, considering how good Bieber has been in just about every other area.
On the other side, Gilbert has really been wavering all season and gives up far too much loud contact to trust him against a contact-oriented team.
I've got no choice here but to grab the road favorite at this great price.
Pick: Guardians ML (-115)
