The Cleveland Guardians will roll out left-hander Matthew Boyd for Game 3 of this AL Championship Series, while the New York Yankees will counter with right-hander Clarke Schmidt on Thursday at Progressive Field.
I'll be targeting two player props, plus the total, for my Guardians vs Yankees parlay for ALCS Game 3.
Guardians vs Yankees Parlay for ALCS Game 3
- Clarke Schmidt Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)
- Matthew Boyd Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+108)
- Under 7.5 (-128)
Parlay Odds: +459, FanDuel
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Schmidt put together his best season since joining the rotation as a full-time starter in 2024. Through 16 starts, the right-hander posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
His analytics were also strong, as he finished the campaign in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. However, Schmidt's greatest strength was his ability to retire hitters by punchout, considering that he ranked in the 79th percentile in whiff rate and 74th percentile in strikeout rate.
I want to back Schmidt in this market, where you can find his strikeout prop at 5.5. He has surpassed this total in 13 of his past 15 starts.
One of those games came against Cleveland, an outing in which Schmidt collected seven strikeouts across five innings of work.
Boyd shined in a limited eight-game sample during the regular season, posting a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally dominant, as the southpaw ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This success has continued into the postseason, where Boyd has yet to allow a run through two appearances on the mound.
Specifically, we are going to back Boyd in the prop market, as he finished the regular season in the top half of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 3.5, a total the left-hander has surpassed in each of his past eight appearances on the mound.
This success could continue against the Yankees, a team Boyd has averaged six strikeouts per game against over the past four meetings.
If we are backing both starting pitchers to put together strong performances, then a correlated outcome would be for this game to stay under the total. The biggest threat to this total is New York's powerhouse lineup, without question.
Regardless, there a few reasons why I am optimistic on the Under. While New York finished the season in the top half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS, Cleveland ranked in the bottom half of the league in each of those categories.
Furthermore, Boyd and Cleveland's bullpen are capable of shutting down New York's lineup. I've already discussed Boyd, but the Guardians' relief staff also ranks first in both ERA and FIP.
