Talk about a potential massive upset.
Pirates’ phenom Paul Skenes was an insane -5000 favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year earlier this month.
Yes, you read that right.
-5000.
Sure, he’s not racking up the punchouts at the rate he once was and he's throwing fewer 100 mph heaters, but Skenes is still crushing it by mortal man standards. That splinker of his remains one of the best pitches in baseball, too. So, after being such an insanely massive favorite a few weeks ago, you’d think at worse he’d simply turn into a massive favorite.
Think again.
NL Rookie of the Year Favorite, Odds
Skenes is no longer favored to win the award as that distinction belongs to fellow All-Star Jackson Merrill. The Padres' outfielder is -120 to win NL Rookie of the Year at FanDuel while Skenes is -105.
To be fair, Merrill would be a runaway favorite virtually any other year. He entered Wednesday with 3.7 WAR, according to Fangraphs, which is 12th in the NL among hitters. It’s nestled a 10th of a percentage point behind Mookie Betts and just ahead of Willy Adames and Freddie Freeman. The 21-year-old is batting .289 with a .320 OBP, .484 slugging percentage and .804 OPS. He also has 69 RBIs and 62 runs with 17 home runs and 13 steals.
Merrill’s rise coincides with the Padres massive winning streak in which they’re 23-7 over their past 30 games. They also haven’t lost back-to-back games over that stretch. San Diego is only 3.0 games behind the Dodgers atop the NL West and cemented themselves as wild-card frontrunners with a 6.5-game lead.
Merrill and Skenes are well ahead of the field in their duel for NL Rookie of the Year. Tyler Fitzgerald of the Giants has the next-best odds at +5000 followed by the Brewers’ Jackson Chourio (+5500), Cardinals’ Masyn Winn (+15000) and Shota Imanaga (+20000).
