Reds vs. Red Sox Odds
| Reds | +140 |
| Red Sox | -165 |
| Total | 10.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Date | Wednesday, May 31 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Wednesday afternoon.
The Cincinnati Reds face the Boston Red Sox in the second game of a three-game interleague series.
The Reds won the first game 9-8 on Tuesday night after a late rally from the Red Sox came up short. Luke Weaver will be on the bump for the Reds while the Red Sox are throwing James Paxton on Wednesday night.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Weaver player prop at BetMGM. The prognostication is expecting Weaver to be all over the Sox and has a bet on his strikeout total.
It is a bet on the over.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every MLB player prop on the market.
Luke Weaver Player Prop Prediction, Projection
Weaver has made seven starts for the Reds this season. He hasn't factored in many decisions (1-2), but has shown an ability to strike guys out.
The model indicates Weaver's strikeout total is way too low. BetMGM has set the total for his strikeouts tonight at 3.5 with -140 to the over and +105 to the under. That is the best price on the over in the market.
In Weaver's seven starts, he's accumulated 37 strikeouts. That's an average of 5.29 strikeouts per outing. He has had over 3.5 strikeouts in each of his past four starts.
Furthermore, the Red Sox are sixth in MLB in strikeouts per game, averaging 7.98 per contest. Over the past three games, Boston has had 11 strikeouts per game.
The model predicts Weaver will have five strikeouts tonight. That's good enough for a 14% betting edge on the over.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same size unit for each individual bet.
Pick: Luke Weaver Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)
