Mariners vs. Astros Odds
| Mariners Odds | +145 |
| Astros Odds | -175 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Houston Astros have won seven of their last 10 games, as they sit atop the American League West division with an overall record of 35-19 this year. Houston is looking to repeat as division champions this season.
The Seattle Mariners haven't won the division or even made the playoffs since 2001, and despite an offseason that saw them make a few splashy moves, they sit in fourth place with a 24-30 record on the season.
Who will get the job done in this divisional matchup Monday night?
Mariners Offense Keeping Up With Astros
Despite a perceived advantage the Astros might have on offense, the Mariners have scored just one fewer run than Houston all season.
Opposing Seattle in this road matchup is Astros starter Cristian Javier, who's been quite good this season. Javier owns a 2.41 ERA, 4.21 xFIP, 31% K%, 9% BB% and 28% ground ball percentage this season.
Javier has been especially good in his last three starts, as he hasn't allowed more than one earned run in any of those starts. In two of those starts, he completed at least 5.2 innings and struck out nine batters.
The Mariners aren't a heavy strikeout team, though, as Seattle has just four hitters in their projected lineup with a K% above 20% against right-handed pitching this season.
There's some power in the Seattle lineup as well, as Eugenio Suarez, Abraham Toro, and Taylor Trammell each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season.
While Seattle still isn't the most imposing offense, it's decent. There's a difference of almost two full runs between Javier's ERA and xFIP this year, so this could be a sneaky opportunity for the Seattle offense.
Can Houston Hit Robbie Ray?
Seattle's Robbie Ray signing was one of the splashy offseason moves, but he hasn't enjoyed quite the same success as last year when he won the American League Cy Young.
Ray has a 4.93 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 27% K%, 8% BB% and 37% ground ball percentage this season. Unlike Javier, if Ray's ERA is due for regression, it's going to go down rather than up.
Ray's strikeouts are up recently, as he's struck out at least eight batters in four of his last five starts. The problem for Ray has been keeping the other team off the scoreboard. He's allowed at least four earned runs in three of those previous starts and allowed at least one home run in all five starts.
This Astros offense has a good track record when it comes to power against left-handed pitching. Since the beginning of last year, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena all own ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching. Alex Bregman has a career .247 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Despite being in the same division now, this will be Ray's first start against the Astros this season.
Mariners-Astros Pick
While the Astros are the favorite and should win this game, I think Vegas has gone a little overboard with the line here. There's value to be had by taking the Mariners' side.
The M's have a shaky bullpen, though, and I believe most of Seattle's advantage will be realized early in the game as they have the starting pitching advantage.
This leads me to take Seattle on the first five innings moneyline at +130 on DraftKings.
Pick: Mariners F5 +130
