Mariners vs. Guardians Pick
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-118 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +130 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -156 |
The Cleveland Guardians still hold onto a lead in the American League Central and are primed for a playoff appearance. They have done so on the back of a great relief staff and some key power hitters in the middle of the lineup.
Logan Allen will get the ball for Cleveland as the starting pitcher, who has had some favorable results all season, despite some sour peripheral metrics. The Seattle Mariners do not necessarily have a stacked lineup, but they will be sending out Luis Castillo.
Castillo has been the ace of a great pitching staff in Seattle. He should have the chance to pitch deep in this game and show why he is the better starter, who can lead his team to victory.
Seattle Mariners
Castillo has a 3.33 ERA and 3.63 xERA. His ground-ball rate, Hard-Hit Rate, and Average Exit Velocity are below average, but Cleveland has not necessarily excelled lately against right-handers, especially of this caliber.
Castillo still owns a 25.2% strikeout rate and sub-7% walk rate, and is excellent at getting hitters to chase with a plus fastball and plus slider. All he has to do is get by the top of the Cleveland order, and he should have a great start.
The Mariners have been fine against lefties in June. While they own a collective 81 wRC+, 11.8% walk rate, and strikeout rate above 30%, they have five active bats above a .320 xwOBA. Since Allen has feasted off of good fortune, the Mariners have enough sticks to get the job done on the road and push across some runs early.
Seattle has one of the bullpens who can match the firepower from the Guardians’ relievers, having five arms in relief under a 4.00 xFIP. As a whole, the Mariners’ bullpen has a sub-4.00 xFIP, even though they tend to issue some walks. Castillo will throw past the fifth inning and should help the Mariners in relief.
Cleveland Guardians
Allen’s 5.30 ERA is a result of allowing a 90.8 MPH Average Exit Velocity. He also allows hard hits often, ranking in the sixth percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. Not only that, his ground-ball, strikeout and walk rates are all below average. He has a June ERA of 2.45 in two starts, but in those starts, his allowed xwOBA is .368, and opponents are still averaging over 90 MPH off the bat.
The Guardians have a team wRC+ of 116 off righties in June. However, much of this damage has been done by Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, Daniel Schneemann, and Will Brennan. All have an xwOBA in June over .350, but the rest of the lineup is under .315.
In addition, facing Logan Allen can be easier than facing Castillo. He will miss some bats, and the Guardians do not strike out much, so this could be noteworthy in the earlier innings.
Cleveland’s bullpen is on fire with a sub-3.50 xFIP. They have six arms under a 4.00 xFIP and can produce plenty of strikeouts. If Seattle is going to do damage, it will have to do so against Allen. That said, forcing Allen out of the game early could provide a boost to Seattle’s relief staff.
Mariners vs. Guardians
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Mariners will be on the road, but Castillo has been great as a starter. He should miss more Cleveland bats than they are used to and could hold the top of the Guardian order in check.
Look for Seattle to score early and use a strong bullpen to lock down this game. Bet the Mariners to pull this out on the road with their ace going. Play them from -118 to -135.
