Mets vs. Dodgers Odds
| Mets Odds | +152 |
| Dodgers Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-118 / -104) |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
After getting absolutely embarrassed by the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Dodgers will be out for redemption on Thursday night against a Mets team that seems impossible to stop.
New York has reeled off six straight wins, helping it to consecutive series victories, and will look to continue that momentum in Los Angeles.
Where does the value lie here? Let's take a closer look.
Mets Come To Los Angeles On Fire
We will start first with the team which enters this series feeling very good about themselves. New York has swept Philadelphia and Washington in quick succession, making no mistake in the last two games with back-to-back shutout wins, scoring 15 runs total.
Aside from some late heroics on Sunday Night Baseball last week, there was really no doubt the Mets were going to win any of these games. The pitching staff has allowed 2.8 runs per game during this stretch, and over the last week the offense has registered a 155 wRC+ to rank second in the league.
Nothing much has changed about the approach of this team. In that period of time, the Mets have struck out in just 17.2% of plate appearances, the sixth-lowest mark in the league, while walking at a 10% clip.
Unsurprisingly, they're first in contact in those seven days, getting the bat on the ball on 82.4% of swings, but in a shocking twist the Mets check in as the ninth-best team in hard-hit balls.
New York has gotten to this point on the back of its expertise in the contact department, lacking the big body blows which most teams rely on exclusively. Now, it's socking the ball.
Now, for the bad. Taijaun Walker will pitch on Thursday, and he's arguably the Mets' worst starter. He does hold a 2.83 ERA, but his 4.11 xERA, 38.9% hard-hit rate and low 13.2% strikeout rate suggest that won't last.
Dodgers Look To Rebound
The Dodgers may be down bad here, but they've still done plenty of good things in the last week. They rank eighth in barrel rate, eighth in walk rate and third in wRC+. They're still getting on base and coming through with extra base hits and homers whenever necessary to win games.
It just so happens that they couldn't beat one of the worst teams in baseball, but that's not a very new story for L.A. It's had some strange results already this season, like series losses to the Diamondbacks, Rockies and even the Pirates a second time. It seems as if this team gets up for the big games but becomes rather complacent and uninterested in these easy spots.
Thursday will afford us the chance to watch Tony Gonsolin pitch again, and he's been fantastic for the Dodgers. He's still yet to allow more than two earned runs in a start this year, pitching to a 1.80 ERA and excellent 2.49 xERA. He's in the top 9% of the league in every predictive metric over at Statcast and his low 26.5% hard-hit rate ranks in the top 4% of the league.
Mets-Dodgers Pick
It's very hard to fade Gonsolin here, as dangerous as this Mets team has been at the plate recently. While the power surge is surely scary, we have to remember New York hasn't really faced a pitching staff the likes of which the Dodgers have.
Yes, I know they just forked over plenty of runs against the Pirates, but as I noted above that's weirdly been a trend to this point.
L.A. should batten down the hatches here and pick up a win behind the marvelous arm of Gonsolin, and Walker should falter. You are simply not going to pitch to contact successfully against this lineup, and that appears what Walker is ready to do with his strikeout numbers.
It's tricky to figure out the best course of action here with the Dodgers sitting as heavy favorites, but I'll go with the run line over the first half of the game.
Pick: Dodgers First Five -0.5 (-128)
