One of the longest-standing rivalries in baseball finally gets put on a grand stage in October. The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies will meet in the postseason for the first time with a spot in the NLCS on the line.
Game 1 has a ton of intrigue, especially when it comes to the men on the mound. Let's dive in to my Mets vs. Phillies player props to see which players you should be focusing on for this matchup.
Doug Ziefel's Mets vs Phillies Player Props
- Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+125, DraftKings)
- Kodai Senga Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+130, DraftKings)
Brandon Nimmo Player Props: Lefties Can Hit Wheeler
Zack Wheeler was once again tremendous for the Philadelphia Phillies this year, and he deserves some NL Cy Young votes for his dominant second half. However, if the Mets are going to do any damage against the former Met, it will likely come from the left side.
Left-handed hitters accounted for most of the damage against Wheeler this season. They hit 15 of the 20 homers he allowed and 20 of the 28 doubles, all while holding a collective BAA of .222.
If there's one lefty that can get to Wheeler, it's Brandon Nimmo. Nearly all of Nimmo's power has come against righties this season, as his ISO is 28 points higher against righties than lefties.
Nimmo has a clear split edge, but he's also seen the ball very well from Wheeler in their matchups. He has hit .302 with a .558 slugging percentage in 44 career at-bats.
Given all of the above and the likelihood that we see Nimmo near the top of the Mets' order, I like him to get on and get driven home in this one to cash the over.
Kodai Senga Player Props: Fade Righty in His Return
Next, we will focus on the Mets' starting pitcher. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza shocked everyone when he announced that Kodai Senga would start Game 1.
Senga was recovering from a calf injury that he suffered in his only start of the year, which he looked excellent in before the injury. Since then, Senga's rehab process has been relatively unknown.
Mendoza said he's been facing live hitters in Florida and they feel he is ready to go. However, Senga's last reported bullpen session was only 25 pitches, so how long will we see him in this matchup?
Given his extremely light workload this season, it's much more likely we see Senga as an opener here than a full-fledged starter. If this is the case, we could see rust, nerves and the environment factor into his abbreviated outing.
With all of this in consideration, he may only be trusted to get six outs, and for half of them to come by strikeout against a Phillies order that ranked 17th in strikeout rate against righties and 13th in wRC+ seems much more unlikely that the line we're getting here.
