Mets vs. Yankees Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -132 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +128 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+112 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -154 |
The New York Mets and New York Yankees kick off their second and final Subway Series of the season, with the two having split their first mini, two-game set back in June.
This is another two-game series, with both teams looking to steal a couple games in the final week before the Trade Deadline and potentially set their side up for attack mode come next Tuesday.
The starting pitcher matchup on Tuesday pits Justin Verlander against Domingo German — two relatively big-name pitchers (thanks in part to German's historic night a month ago) who maybe aren't quite as good as the name brand would suggest.
Add in those friendly Yankee Stadium confines, and it's going to be a day for an over.
New York Mets
On the surface, Justin Verlander has been improving. His ERA sits at 3.47, which is the lowest it has been since his second start of the season. His FIP is actually the lowest it has been all season, and he's fresh off his best start — an eight-inning, seven-strikeout gem against the White Sox on Wednesday.
However, a bit of that is due to the fact that he's had plenty of home cooking. Of his last five starts, four have been at home, where he has been notably better. The lone road start saw him walk more batters than he struck out, even though he did hold the Padres to just two earned runs (three total) over five innings.
For the season, Verlander owns a 2.34 ERA at home, compared to 5.18 on the road. It's not just the ERA, as his WHIP and SO-BB% are also notably worse away from Citi Field. Citi ranks as the fourth-best stadium for pitchers this season, so it is more than just enjoying his own bed the night before.
Which is key, since Verlander will be "away from home" only in name for Tuesday's start in the Bronx.
Yankee Stadium has quietly been a rather pitcher-friendly ballpark in recent seasons, ranking just two spots below Citi Field when it comes to run suppression overall. However, it is still nearly unrivaled when it comes to the long ball, with the stadium ranking third, per Baseball Savant, for home runs in the past three years.
With the wind blowing out to left field, that's trouble for Verlander.
New York Yankees
For German, he's pitching at home, where he has been better, but the bad news here may be even bigger picture.
We all saw German make history on June 28 against the A's when he threw the 24th perfect game in MLB history. In the three games since, the results haven't been terrible (4.41 ERA; 3.34 FIP), but under the hood, it is a bit worrying.
Take a look at his velocity in July:
Down across the board on all three pitches, and rather notably when it comes to his fastball.
German was already not blowing hitters away with his fastball (88 Stuff+ on his heater), and the pitch is even more vulnerable than ever. He only throws the pitch a little over a third of the time, using his curveball more, but the horizontal movement on his curveball is also down in July.
It's not uncommon to see pitchers struggle a bit after a big historic performance, in part because they just don't go as deep into games these days typically.
Mets vs. Yankees Betting Pick
Combining Verlander's road struggles with German's recent velo and movement slide makes over 4.5 runs in the first five innings my best bet.
The Mets bullpen is shaky enough to make the full game number interesting as well, but a well-rested Yankees bullpen (by far the best bullpen ERA in baseball) makes me favor the first five specifically.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 |
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