Cubs vs. Reds Odds
| Cubs Odds | -105 |
| Reds Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
The Field of Dreams game is finally here, and we get to watch two of the sport's most historic franchises face off on that beautiful corn field in Iowa.
The game itself — Cubs vs Reds — is much less enticing than last year's matchup. However, that's just from a fan perspective.
From a bettor's perspective, there is loads of value to be found. Check out Sean Zerillo's guide on how to bet this game from a side/total perspective, but read on for how to target the player prop market for the Field of Dreams game.
Aristides Aquino vs. Curveballs
It's been an ugly year for Aristides Aquino, who has cruised into a 37 wRC+ in 38 games this season. He's striking out more than 42% of the time on the season, walking fewer than 5% of the time and has produced a pitiful .118 ISO.
However, I think he's been struggling with injuries. He slashed .049/.093/.122 in his 15 games in April — where the Reds went 1-14 — before missing about a month. He also missed some time between June 12 and August 2 and spent some time in Triple-A (where he crushed it).
Since his return, he's recorded at least one hit in seven of his last nine games. He hasn't been prolific from a power standpoint, but he's been consistently cashing his total bases prop for bettors.
I think this matchup works in his favor. Drew Smyly is a curveball-heavy pitcher, throwing it more than 40% of the time with mixed results. He ranks in just the fifth percentile of pitchers in curve spin rate, a number that has steadily declined over the past few years.
Meanwhile, Aquino's numbers against curveballs have been solid, even with limited sample size. It's the one pitch he's produced a positive run value against this year, mostly thanks to his .667 SLG against the pitch.
His exit velocity and xSLG on curveballs have made big jumps this season.
This has worked to Aquino's favor in past matchups with Smyly. Aquino is 4-for-9 lifetime off Smyly with a whopping three home runs. Aquino has managed a good launch angle and has produced a xSLG above 1.100 on batted balls of Smyly.
Therefore, I expect Aquino to smack one of Smyly's curveballs into the gap in Iowa's cornfields this evening, thereby cashing this for us.
Pick: Over 0.5 Total Bases (-120 at DraftKings)
Fade Nick Lodolo
Nick Lodolo will be a future lynchpin of the Reds' rotation. The former first-round pick has flashed high potential in his first season in the majors, specifically in producing whiffs. He rank above the 75th percentile of pitchers in whiff rate and is striking out more than 12 batters per nine innings.
However, I think this is a prime spot to fade him.
First, while the Cubs have struggled recently against southpaws, our analyst Sean Zerillo's model projects the Cubs for a 111 wRC+ against lefties in this matchup. This presents a solid inefficiency between the books and our projections.
Second, Lodolo has some of the better stuff in the majors. But he still walks almost 4.2 batters per nine innings. His whopping 10% walk rate ranks below the 20th percentile pitchers. The Cubs aren't a good offense, but they aren't horrific from a plate-discipline perspective, walking about 7% of the time.
Third, you have to think the park in Iowa is going to work in the hitter's favor, especially after seeing the slugfest between the Yankees and White Sox last season. I'm inclined to think Lodolo will perform below his usual level.
Recent trends don't work in Lodolo's favor, anyway. Let's look at how he's been against some of his lines set tonight.
- Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts: 3-for-9 to the over, 1-for-3 on the road
- Over/Under 17.5 Outs: 2-for-9 to the over, 0-for-3 on the road
- Over/Under 4.5 Hits: 6-for-9 to the over, 2-for-3 on the road
- Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs: 5-for-9 to the over, 3-for-3 on the road
Our internal projections are low on Lodolo today. The Action Labs Player Props tool projects Lodolo for just 5.9 strikeouts today, producing a 13.4% edge over the BetMGM line and a 9/10 Action Labs Grade. Plus, Action Network's PropBetGuy projects Lodolo to record just 15 outs in his favorite bet of the day.
Moreover, FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark Lodolo to allow 4.8 hits and walk 2.8 batters on Thursday evening.
There are plenty of ways to fade Lodolo in his start tonight. I'd heavily consider any of these picks below:
Possible Picks:
- Under 7.5 Ks (-155 at BetMGM)
- Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135 at BetMGM)
- Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125 at DraftKings)
- Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-105 at DraftKings)
- Over 2.5 Walks (+135 at DraftKings)
