Baseball betting is one of a kind. Diving into a full MLB slate every day is grueling, and sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total.
But there are always opportunities to fade pitchers.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases and home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are almost always plus-money, and home run props can often reach the +700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s.
In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Like slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +12365 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
MLB Home Run Props
Jose Ramirez (Guardians)
Vs. Royals, 6:40 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Brady Singer (RHP)
You’ll see me stick to a trend often for Triple 7s: attacking games in hitter-friendly run environments. The next comes out in Cleveland, where the wind is blowing to right-center at 12 mph. Based on a 77-game sample size of this game, home runs see a +26.5% increase in this weather environment.
Let’s go with ol’ reliable here and back one of the baseball's hardest hitters in Jose Ramirez.
Over the last 30 days, Ramirez has hit 10 home runs with an OPS over 1.100. His extra-base hit rate is over 50%, and he’s struck out just 12% of the time.
He also happens to face a familiar foe that he’s crushed in the past: Brady Singer. In 23 at-bats, Ramirez is hitting .435 with a pair of doubles and homers.
Singer is due for negative regression, and this could be a great spot given the hitting conditions. The right-hander's xERA (4.35) is nearly two runs higher than his actual (2.63), and he's seen his barrel rate increase (8.9%) year over year.
Singer doesn't generate many chases and his xBA is up at .259 — he’s just benefitted from a career-best 83.8% strand rate. His numbers also spike against left-handed hitters. While lefties are hitting just .239 against Singer, 54% of all hits have gone for extra bases. He's allowing a .765 OPS to southpaws, but that number drops over 200 points against the other side.
While Singer is a ground-ball pitcher, attacking low in the zone is where Ramirez is best. Per fellow Action Network contributor PropBetGuy, "Ramirez has a 1.055 OPS against ground-ball pitchers."
J-Ram has the second-best isolated power on the Guardians against right-handed pitching (.262) and sits inside the top four in wRC+ (126). Given the way he’s trending of late and the perfect hitting conditions, Ramirez could be in for another big night.
Pick: Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+430, FanDuel)
Corey Seager (Rangers)
Vs. Tigers, 8:05 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Kenta Maeda (RHP)
To put it simply, Kenta Maeda has fallen off in his age 36 season.
His velocity has dropped into the high 80s and he’s seen his strikeout rate drop by double digits from last season. For a high fly-ball pitcher, that often leads to disaster — a 10.7% barrel rate does not help either.
Maeda has always had a home run problem. His career HR/9 rate is 1.28, but this season the numbers have jumped nearly a whole point (2.23). He has given up a home run in three of his last four starts and, across nine starts, has actually been tattooed for three or more on two separate occasions.
One of those games you ask? The Texas Rangers on April 18th.
Marcus Semien led off the game with a home run and both Jonah Heim and Adolis Garcia added one by the third inning.
I think this is a great opportunity to buy on the Rangers offense again, but I’m targeting lefty slugger Corey Seager.
Seager returned from offseason surgery and his power numbers really took a nosedive early on in the season. In April, the lefty hit just .208 with a pair of home runs and an OPS under .600. But those concerns were quickly put to rest in May, where Seager hit 11 bombs and had an OPS over 1.000.
I’m going to continue to buy Seager as he continues to crush the ball. It was only a matter of time before it all came together and now the lefty ranks in the 97th percentile among qualified hitters in xSLG (.561) and xwOBA (.394). His 16.1% barrel rate is actually better than last season — when he broke out and would’ve likely won the MVP award if it were not for the dual-threat Shohei Ohtani.
Maeda is a heavy fade candidate and this price on Seager is too much to pass on.
Pick: Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+320, FanDuel)
Gavin Sheets (White Sox)
Vs. Cubs, 8:05 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Jameson Taillon (RHP)
The wind is blowing out significantly at Wrigley Field on Wednesday and it has quickly become the best home-run environment on the slate today. Expect sunny skies and near-80-degree temperatures at first pitch.
Using the RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge app, you can see that based on a 170-game sample of similar conditions, home runs see a 52.4% boost. In other words, hit the ball in the air and you have a chance.
That brings us to Gavin Sheets, a left-hander in a great matchup against Jameson Taillon.
Despite a much-improved start to the season for Taillon, he doesn't strike out batters (10%) and has struggled against left-handed hitting.In 84 at-bats, lefties have hit .274 with four home runs and a .796 OPS. Those numbers drop drastically against righties (89 at-bats, .236 avg., 1 HR).
There are a few reasons as to why I settled on Sheets above everyone else. The lefty has begun to hit for more power this season — 7.6 barrel rate, up nearly 2% — and has seen his xSLG jump over 100 points.
Sheets doesn't strike out, boasts an elite eye and an even better knack for finding the sweet-spot on the barrel. He is also hitting the ball harder and in the air over his last 10+ games.
Among everyday players, Sheets is the second-best option when it comes to wRC+ (126) against right-handed pitching. His ISO also sits top five in the White Sox offense — and he’s by far the most patient hitter. His K-BB% is just 0.6% against righties.
Pick: Gavin Sheets to Hit a Home Run (+500, BetMGM)
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Friday, May 31
- Jose Ramirez
- Corey Seager
- Gavin Sheets
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,236.50.
