It was another lackluster day yesterday, with a 1-1 record for a slight loss. Friday presents us with a much bigger slate, so let's have ourselves a day.
I have three more MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Thursday, July 25.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks | Model Predictions
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Yusei Kikuchi vs. Andrew Heaney
Neither starter in this game is especially confidence inspiring based on their overall numbers. Both do their best work early in games, though, which is the important thing for the NRFI.
Toronto's Kikuchi has ERA and xFIP numbers below three his first time through the order — as well as ERA indicators lower than his overall ERA. I'm not banking on overall ERA regression at this point in the year, but we don't need it from Kikuchi from a first inning perspective.
Heaney has a 3.69 ERA that drops nearly a run his first time through the order, plus the opposing Blue Jays have struggled against lefties this season.
Jump on this one as soon as you can, as the game total is dropping quickly which will bring the NRFI line with it.
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello vs. Nestor Cortes
The Yankees are driving the bulk of this projection. They're the best team in baseball against RHP, extremely top heavy, and facing the struggling Brayan Bello.
Bello has a 5.27 overall ERA and 5.30 first time through the order ERA, with better xFIP numbers. At this point in the season, it's hard to bank on ERA regressing to ERA indicators, though — whatever factors are leading to that "bad luck" are likely to remain.
One of those factors being Fenway Park, which trails only Coors Field for the best hitters park in baseball.
On the other side, Boston has a reasonable shot of getting there against Cortes, who has average numbers across the board.
Like the above game, this total is on the move so grab your ticket before the YRFI moves with it.
Dodgers vs. Astros
Starting Pitchers: Gavin Stone vs. Framber Valdez
This game is a bit trickier, because it features both good pitching and good hitting.
Good hitting is probably underselling it a bit, though, at least in the case of the Dodgers. They have the best wRC+ in the league against lefties, with the bulk of their production from the top of the order.
Houston is "only" a top-10 team against righties, but they're also fairly top heavy.
With the total in this game moving up to 8.5 runs, the market is looking fairly bullish on the offenses. That's a good signal for the YRFI, especially at just past even-money.
