It was a rough start to the week yesterday, going 0-3 for the reverse sweep. We'll try to bust out of that slump on Tuesday, with a busier slate and more games to choose from.
We have three more MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model picks for Tuesday, June 18.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Tuesday, June 18
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals
Starting Pitchers: Slade Cecconi vs. Jake Irvin
Like yesterday, there are a lot of games on Tuesday's slate with weather conditions favorable to hitters. This is not one of them.
With that out of the way, we're getting a relatively rare plus-money NRFI thanks to the nine-run total in this game, but odds are those runs come a bit later in the contest.
Diamondbacks starter Slade Cecconi has an ERA over 6.00 as a starter, but that drops to 0.84 in his 21 innings of work the first time through the order.
That means he gets through the first few innings cleanly more often than not. Plus, the Nationals' first few hitters aren't especially intimidating.
On the other side, Jake Irvin has a 3.00 ERA that dips to 2.40 his first time through the order, with a similar trend in his xFIP numbers.
I wouldn't lay much juice on this one because of the higher total, but I'm projecting a fair value of -115 or so. That makes the plus-money FanDuel line more than worth taking.
Orioles vs. Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Albert Suarez vs. Nestor Cortes
Albert Suarez was a fun story to start the year. He's a 34-year-old who hadn't pitched stateside until the Orioles "discovered" him in the offseason and brought him over from the KBO. He's now made 14 appearances with seven starts and has an excellent ERA of 1.61.
However, that number comes with some major caveats.
As a starter, it's a bit higher at 1.82. More importantly, his xFIP and SIERA numbers are both around 4.20. That xFIP jumps to 4.50 his first time through the order — or about a half-run per inning pitched.
That's against an average team of course, and the Yankees are anything but. Their lineup features the two best hitters in baseball coming to the plate in the first inning, plus somewhat above-average hitters in the first and fourth spots.
Baltimore projects well, too, with three solid hitters at the top and Gunnar Henderson in the cleanup spot. Broadly speaking, the Orioles also hit lefties considerably better than righties, making the matchup with Cortes especially intriguing.
BetMGM and BetRivers have lines in the -120 range this morning, and I'd take this down to the -130ish offered at FanDuel and DraftKings, but no further.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Houck vs. Chris Bassitt
I was hoping we could catch a slightly better line on this one, but the -130 range is right on the edge of where I'm projecting value.
With that said, I like this one considerably more than my model does. That's because I power my pitcher ratings with xFIP, and both pitchers have elite ERAs their first time through the order.
Broadly speaking, while we expect actual ERA to converge with ERA predictors, the best predictor of future ERA is current ERA after a large enough sample size (barring things like changing teams or other outside circumstances).
Whatever factors are causing a pitcher to be "lucky" will likely continue, whether that be a pitcher-friendly stadium, above-average defense, pitch framing, or anything else.
All of which is a long way to say these guys are good early in the game. In 30-plus innings of first-time-through-the-order work, Houck and Bassitt have ERAs of 1.09 and 0.59, respectively.
With neither lineup being too top-heavy (Boston's top two hitters by wRC+ hit fourth and fifth), they should be able to get through one inning today.
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler vs. Austin Gomber
I got greedy yesterday, taking the over 1.5 first-inning runs line in a game where the Dodgers scored one run in the first inning.
Rather than repeat that mistake, I'm looking at the traditional YRFI in a game with an 11.5-run total.
The situation is more or less similar, as the top of the Dodgers' order features two top-10 hitters even without Mookie Betts. They have a winnable matchup against Austin Gomber, who owns a 4.26 ERA and somewhat higher underlying metrics.
Colorado isn't drawing dead here either. The matchup with Buehler is hard to project, as he has a 4.64 overall ERA with some ERA predictors much lower and others a bit higher. However, both his ERA and xFIP are in the mid-fours the first time through the order.
If you can't get the off-market -135 line at BetMGM, I'd pivot to a half-unit bet on the Dodgers' team-specific YRFI at +145 at DraftKings or their first-inning moneyline at +195.
