MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Friday Model Predictions (July 5)
We went 1-2 yesterday, with Will Benson's highlight-reel catch robbing Juan Soto of a home run, and robbing us of another winner. Hopefully we can get some swings the other way today.
Here's my four MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Friday, July 5.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Friday, July 5
Mets vs. Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs. Luis Severino
I was pretty surprised to see the line on the NRFI being so reasonable here, considering the starting pitchers involved. Paul Skenes has been every bit as good as advertised in the majors, with a 2.06 ERA and 2.19 xFIP overall.
Both of those numbers get better his first time through the order, dropping to 1.69 and 1.62, respectively.
On the other side, Severino has been solid for the Mets, but even better early in games with a 2.27 first time through the order ERA.
The Mets have the better offense here (by a long shot) but that's cancelled out by having to face Skenes, while the Pittsburgh lineup isn't much of a threat even against lesser pitching.
I'd continue to play this one even if the total rises from 7.5 to 8.0, which could also lead to an even better line on the NRFI.
Cardinals vs. Nationals
Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs. Patrick Corbin
I've gone back and forth on how to play this game, with the traditional YRFI at -110, the Cardinals to score a run at +170, and the Cardinals first inning moneyline all projecting as values based on my model.
I prefer taking the bigger swing — for half of a unit — on the juicier pick, though. This is mostly based on fading Patrick Corbin, who has a 5.49 ERA overall and 5.29 ERA his first time through the order.
While the Cardinals are bad against lefties on the season, much of that was without catcher Willson Contreras. Contreras has excellent platoon splits against southpaws and a 155 wRC+ overall, and is back to batting third in their lineup.
On the other side, Sonny Gray has a 2.98 overall ERA that drops to 1.75 his first time through the order, so the Nationals chances aren't great at getting him to him early — hence taking the moneyline.
You could also risk .55 units to win .5 on the regular YRFI along with the moneyline play — that way, if the Nats are the only team to score, you break even.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman vs. Luis Castillo
While these aren't elite pitchers, the fact that this game has a seven-run total, gives us hints as to what the market thinks of their chances tonight.
Gausman has a 4.75 ERA on the season, but both his xFIP and SIERA are nearly a full run lower, and so is his ERA the first time through the order.
Castillo has a 3.87 ERA, similar ERA predictors, and even better numbers early in the game.
With both teams ranking below average against righties in wRC+, it's worth laying the juice here.
Brewers vs. Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Civale vs. Tyler Glasnow
Unless they're taking on Nolan Ryan in his prime, I'm probably going to take any Dodgers YRFI at plus-money I can find.
The top of their lineup has Shoehei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman — two top-10 hitters by wRC+ — with two well above average righties (Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith) in the second and fourth spot.
Ohtani and Freeman drive most of this, as Brewers starter Aaron Civale has struggled against lefties this season with a .370 wOBA allowed. He also has an ERA over 5.00 overall, another good sign for the yes.
Milwaukee has a tougher task against Glasnow, but they're also a top-five offense against righties. They contribute just enough to make the full-game YRFI the play here rather than trying to get cute with Dodgers-specific angles.
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