I'm back today for the final Tuesday slate of the MLB regular season, and all 30 teams are in action.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and model predictions for Royals vs Nationals, Mets vs Braves and Red Sox vs Blue Jays on September 24.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Tuesday Model Picks — 9/24
Billy Ward's Royals vs. Nationals NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Mitchell Parker
I had this game projecting as a solid value even when the game total was eight. It looks even stronger now that the line has moved (back) to 7.5, while we're still getting a solid price on the NRFI.
The biggest factor is both team's platoon splits. It's a lefty-on-lefty pitching matchup, and each of these offenses hit lefties around 10 wRC+ points worse than righties.
Both starters also have solid first-time-through-the-order splits, with Ragans standing out with his 2.13 ERA and Parker having an acceptable 3.86 mark.
As always with the Royals, there's some risk that Bobby Witt Jr. does it all himself, but it's an acceptable risk given the price tag and other factors — and the fact that Witt is significantly better against righties.
Billy Ward's Red Sox vs. Blue Jays YRFI Pick
Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello vs. Bowden Francis
I was fairly surprised to see plus/even money lines throughout the industry on this one, considering the two starting pitchers involved.
Both Brayan Bello and Bowden Francis have first-time-through-the-order ERAs on the wrong side of 4.00, with similar xFIP numbers.
Considering both offenses are tied for ninth in the MLB in wRC+ against righties, they have a solid chance of getting to both pitchers.
Boston is missing Rafael Devers, but it still has two hitters in the top four of its lineup with wRC+ marks over 130.
The Blue Jays are even more top heavy, with one of the best hitters in baseball in Vlad Guerrero Jr. getting a guaranteed at-bat in the first frame.
Billy Ward's Braves vs. Mets NRFI Pick
Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino vs. Spencer Schwellenbach
While Spencer Schwellenbach is no Spencer Strider, he does a reasonable impression of the similarly-named ace early in games (he has a 1.85 ERA his first time through the order).
Luis Severino also starts strong, with a 1.73 mark of his own.
That's enough for me on this NRFI, especially considering there's no hitters at the top of either order we're especially worried about.
