Monday night's baseball slate brings us just eight games, but our analysts have their eyes on two matchups headlined by contenders out of the National League West.
They see value in Marlins vs. Dodgers and Padres vs. Giants and have two corresponding bets for each game. Check out their best bets for Monday night below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
DJ James: Pablo López has been a solid pitcher for the Marlins this season, but after the All-Star Break, he owns a 6.00 ERA. This does not bode well as he heads into a matchup with the second-best offense against righties in August, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have a 145 wRC+ this month, only trailing the St. Louis Cardinals. They are slugging .528 as a unit.
López allows an Average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH, so this is slightly better than average. They have seven batters above a .330 xwOBA. The rest of the lineup is over .300, which means they will piece together a strong plate appearance occasionally.
Now, López also has a 5.06 ERA in August alone. He has only seen a dominant outing against the Oakland A’s, so the Dodgers are a completely different lineup.
In addition, the Marlins have a relatively weak bullpen. This month, they have a team xFIP of 4.25, ranking 22nd in the MLB. After López leaves this game early, they will have to eat innings. The Dodgers will manage to score off of those relievers.
Take the Dodgers' team total over 4.5 (-105), and play it to 5 (-130).
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Brad Cunningham: Carlos Rodon has been outstanding in his first season in San Francisco. The lefty has a 2.71 xERA, 2.99 xFIP, 11.55 K/9 rate, and opposing hitters only have a .256 xwOBA against him.
He’ll have a great matchup against a Padres lineup that not only has struggled versus left-handed pitching this season (.310 wOBA, 16th in MLB), but they also have a combined -4.9 run value against fastballs and sliders, which are basically the only two pitches Rodon throws.
Mike Clevinger has been very average this year. His xERA is at 4.07, his xFIP is at 4.47, and opposing hitters have a .313 xwOBA against him. He does a great job mixing his pitches with a five pitch arsenal of fastball, slider, cutter, sinker, and changeup going to each pitch over 10% of the time. The problem is he goes to his fastball over 35% of the time and that is a pitch the Giants have a +35.9 run value against this season.
I have Rodon and the Giants projected at -198 for the first five innings, so I love the value on them at -134 and would play it up to -170.
