Another week in Major League Baseball begins with a 15-game slate including games spread out throughout the day. The slate wraps up with Sunday Night Baseball between the Padres and Dodgers.
Including that game, our staff has picks on three games. The others are Astros vs. Guardians and Pirates vs. Orioles.
Here are our three best bets from Sunday's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Astros vs. Guardians
Tony Sartori: The Houston Astros have been in terrific form recently, a trend I expect to continue Sunday as right-hander Cristian Javier is slated to take the mound. Through 20 appearances this season, Javier is 6-7 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
His metrics are even stronger as he boasts a .261 xwOBA, .177 xBA and a .307 xSLG. In his one start against Cleveland this season, Javier threw a gem as he hurled 5 2/3 shutout innings while only allowing three hits and striking out nine.
Houston won that game, 2-1, a result I could see transpire once again. Following Javier is one of the best bullpens in baseball.
We are backing Houston to take care of business in this game as the Astros boast a better starting pitcher, lineup and bullpen.
The one advantage Cleveland possesses is the fact that they are at home, which is why we may be getting such a generous number on Houston. That being said, Cleveland is just a few games over .500 at Progressive Field this season.
Houston has been on a roll and I expect that to continue in this matchup.
Pirates vs. Orioles
Jules Posner: Statistically, the Baltimore Orioles are an above-average baseball team and the Pittsburgh Pirates are a bad baseball team. While the Pirates have young talent finding their way, the Orioles have young talent who have found their way.
Bryse Wilson gets the start for the Pirates and he's struggled this season. Although he's ben slightly better on the road, he's still been bad this season. He has a 5.35 ERA with a 4.90 FIP on the road this season. He'll be taking on an offense that is not particularly prolific, but they seem to consistently get it done.
On the other side, Spenser Watkins gets the ball for the Orioles. While his numbers at home are quite scary, the Pirates' offense is one of the worst offenses on the road against RHP over the past couple of weeks. They have also scored zero and three runs in the first two games of this series.
If Watkins gets into trouble, he'll be backed by an Orioles bullpen that is missing some key components, but is still a respectable group. They also have arms that have been itching to move up the ranks and get higher leverage opportunities. With the departure of Jorge Lopez, the O's pen looks to prove themselves and they've done fine so far.
The Orioles run line is in plus money and I'll take a team that scores a fair amount over a team that struggles to score any day. The Pirates have the second-worst team wRC+ on the road against RHP over the past two weeks, so the Orioles should be able to create the distance needed to cover the spread.
Play the O's run line as long as it's in plus money.
Padres vs. Dodgers
Tanner McGrath: Yu Darvish and Tyler Anderson are two solid starting pitchers being backed up by top-10 bullpens. The Dodgers are first in reliever xFIP (3.53), while the Padres are seventh in reliever xFIP (3.70).
These staffs can keep opposing offenses at bay.
Sure, both offenses are dangerous, but the Padres’ lineup may be slightly overvalued with Juan Soto and Josh Bell in the fold. Who doesn’t want to bet on those two in San Diego right away?
Both defenses will hold their own, with the Dodgers ranking second in DRS and the Padres ranking first in Outs Above Average.
This line feels slightly high and considering three of the past four games between these two have gone under, I’m ready to take the under one more time.
