With a full slate of games, there are many props to choose from. Today, there are two props I like: an over and an under.
For this article, I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 16-12, +1.73 Units, +6.2% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Cole Irvin (OAK) 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-143)
| Athletics vs. Orioles | OAK -130 |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | William Hill |
Former table tennis player Forrest Gump once said, “Life is like a box of chocolates. You don’t know what you are going to get."
For Oakland A’s starting pitcher Cole Irvin, he is like a box of chocolates in that you do not know what to expect. Over the course of three seasons, Irvin has pitched for only 61 innings as a reliever and starting pitcher. During the offseason, he was traded from the Phillies to the Athletics, and we are starting to get an idea of what to expect.
So far, Irvin projects to be a relatively average pitcher with a low strikeout rate. However, Oakland’s rotation is full of average pitchers, and that is why Irvin can be counted on to pitch for five to six innings per start.
For Irvin’s short career, he has averaged 6.79 strikeouts per nine innings.
For Irvin to have four or more strikeouts and go over his strikeout total on Friday, he would have to pitch for 5 1/3 innings in a typical game.
Against a Baltimore lineup that is averaging 8.86 strikeouts per game, Irvin should go over his total. Additionally, over the course of a full season, my model projects the Orioles to have 9.57 strikeouts per game.
With Irvin having a low strikeout total at plus money, that is a bet that is too good to pass up.
Pick: Cole Irvin Over 3.5 Strikeouts +105 (up to -120)
- Action Labs Score: 8
- Kevin Davis Score: 5
Jacob deGrom (NYM) 9.5 Strikeouts (-160/+120)
| Nationals vs. Mets | NYM -300 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
I am a glutton for punishment as I have taken the under on Jacob deGrom’s strikeout total in each of his games this season.
Typically, his strikeout total is set at either 8.5 or 9.5 strikeouts, which over the course of a long season, is too high. In his last two starts, deGrom has had 14 strikeouts. However, if I flip a coin three times in a row and get heads each time, my probability of getting tails is still 50%. It will be a sweat, but at +120, I like deGrom to rack up fewer than 9.5 strikeouts.
deGrom is averaging 15.75 strikeouts per nine innings. In the shortened 2020 season, deGrom averaged 13.76 strikeouts per nine innings. However, most prediction sites predict deGrom to average around 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings for this season. For deGrom to have 10 or more strikeouts on a typical day, deGrom would have to pitch for almost eight innings.
In addition to deGrom’s unsustainably high strikeout rate, the other reason to take the under on his strikeout total is the Washington Nationals' lineup.
The Nats average only 8.17 strikeouts per game, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. Against a disciplined lineup, deGrom should go under his strikeout total even though it is an uncomfortable bet to make.
Pick: Jacob deGrom Under 9.5 Strikeouts +120 (down to -110)
- Action Labs Score: 9
- Kevin Davis Score: 8
