With a slate of 11 baseball games, there are many MLB props to choose from on Monday's card.
Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout totals. Despite this, there are two props that I like — both unders.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 54-47, +0.06 Units, 0% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Michael King Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-134)
| Angels at Yankees | Yankees -157 |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Michael King is a hard pitcher to evaluate. Over his MLB career, King has pitched for only 53 innings, so little is known about him — he's been a mix between a long reliever and a short starter, and since being elevated from the bullpen to the Yankees' rotation last month, he's pitched for a short number of innings with a low strikeout rate.
As a result, his strikeout total has been set at a modest 4.5 for Monday.
Currently, King is averaging only 7.65 strikeouts per nine innings. Additionally, he's averaging around four innings per start. In a league in which the typical starting pitcher only pitches for five innings per start, King pitches for even fewer innings. In fact, King has pitched for five or more innings in only one of his five starts this season. In a typical King start, he pitches for four innings and has 3.46 strikeouts.
For a pitcher like King to go over his strikeout total in a limited number of innings, they typically must face a strikeout prone team. Unfortunately, the Angels' lineup averages only 8.68 strikeouts per game, compared to the MLB's median lineup that is averaging 8.8 strikeouts per game this season.
When you adjust King’s strikeout total to L.A.'s lineup, he should have three or four strikeouts tonight. So at -134, the juice is worth it. I would bet the under to -160.
Pick: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-134) at DraftKings (to -160)
- Action Labs Score: 8
- Kevin Davis Score: 7
Freddy Peralta Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-150)
| Cubs at Brewers | Brewers -144 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Freddy Peralta is the prototypical Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher for this season. The Brewers have several power pitchers and Peralta is one of them as he has a strikeout rate of 12.67 strikeouts per nine innings this season. The question is if he can pitch enough innings to go over his strikeout total.
The typical Brewers starting pitcher will pitch for only five innings per start, but Peralta averages about 5 2/3 innings per start. On a typical night with Peralta’s current strikeout rate, Peralta should have 7.74 strikeouts this season. However, that is assuming Peralta continues having an absurdly high strikeout rate. While Peralta had a 14.42 per nine innings strikeout rate in 2020, such a high strikeout rate is unsustainable.
Over the course of a long season Peralta should have a strikeout rate of 12.30 strikeout per nine innings according to FanGraphs ZIPS projections. With the ZIPS projected strikeout rate, Peralta would have to pitch for almost 6 2/3 innings to go over his strikeout total. The juice may be heavy especially against a strikeout prone Cubs lineup, but it is more likely than not that Peralta has fewer than 8.5 strikeouts tonight.
Pick: Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-150) at FanDuel (to -160)
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 4
