We swept the board again on Saturday, but there's no stopping now. I have three more starters to help us secure an immaculate weekend.
So, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Sunday, June 16.
MLB Player Props: Sunday, June 16
- Jesus Luzardo over 4.5 strikeouts (-125, bet365)
- Hurston Waldrep over 3.5 strikeouts (-145, DraftKings)
- Logan Gilbert under 6.5 strikeouts (-145, bet365)
Miami Marlins ace Jesus Luzardo missed a few starts with injury this year and has some concerning peripheral numbers. His ERA has ballooned up to 5.11, and his strikeout rate is down six percent from last season.
However, the lethal lefty is due for positive regression, and it should begin this afternoon against the Washington Nationals. The Nats have not handled lefties well this season, as they rank 28th in wRC+ and have the 11th-highest strikeout rate against them.
Additionally, we should see more strikeouts from Luzardo. He has had trouble putting away hitters, but the strikes are there as he ranks in the 90th percentile in swinging strike rate.
Lastly, this total is far too low for Luzardo, even in his current form. Over his last 62 starts, he has exceeded this number in 74 percent of them.
Better outings are coming for Luzardo, and strikeouts are going to be a big part of his success.
It could not have gone worse for Hurston Waldrep in his MLB debut. The Braves rookie had all sorts of command issues as he walked four and allowed seven runs in just 3.2 innings of work.
However, he has an excellent opportunity to turn it around in his second big-league start. He'll face the Tampa Bay Rays, who rank 21st in wRC+ and hold the seventh-highest team strikeout rate.
Waldrep's first start was not indicative of his potential, as he was a fast riser through the minors because of his elite swing-and-miss stuff. This time last year, Waldrep was pitching in the College World Series and has held a 36 percent strikeout rate over 18 minor league starts.
Look for him to show his potential this afternoon.
Logan Gilbert has been excellent for the Mariners this season. He enters this outing with a 3.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP through 14 starts. However, Gilbert is a pitcher who does not rely on getting outs in a certain way.
He averages less than a strikeout per inning, and today, he'll have to contend with the defending World Series Champions, the Texas Rangers, who have been seeing the ball well from righties this season.
The Rangers rank 25th in team strikeout rate against righties, and Gilbert's line does not accurately represent the matchup. This total of 6.5 is key for Gilbert, as he's recorded at least six strikeouts in 64 percent of his starts this season.
However, he's reached seven punchouts in just 43 percent of his 14 starts this year. That rate drops to 32 percent if you stretch it out to the past two seasons as well.
Given the matchup and Gilbert's history, the under is the side to take.
