Check out my two favorite player props for Game 3 of the NLCS in Philadelphia.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-136)
| Padres vs Phillies | |
| First Pitch | 7:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
I'm not that high on Ranger Suarez. His stuff isn't great (86.6 Stuff+), and he doesn't rank above the 23rd percentile in either swinging strike or CSW rate.
Suarez was a great story in 2021, putting up a 1.36 ERA in three different roles (middle relief, closer and starter). But loads of regression came for him as he finally put together a 150-inning season.
The Phillies' starter pitched to a 3.65 ERA and a 3.78 xERA. At least his FIP and xFIP were in line, so he isn't due for any more regression.
Suarez had an interesting postseason debut. He allowed just one run against the red-hot Atlanta Braves but was yanked after 3 1/3 pitches because he threw 86 pitches. He only allowed three hits but walked five batters and allowed a solo home run for an 8.51 FIP.
However, Suarez also struck out five Braves, which gives me enough confidence to play his over today.
For what it's worth, Suarez has cashed this number in 15 straight starts. He often finishes with exactly four strikeouts, but he gets over the number nonetheless. His strikeout rates go up slightly if you give him a long enough leash, as he's recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of 16 games when he throws at least 90 pitches.
The Padres are one of the better plate discipline teams in baseball but have struggled this playoff run. They've allowed five of the last six opposing starting pitchers to go over their strikeout totals, including three straight southpaws.
Projections are high on Suarez today, with three different models projecting value on his over, including:
- The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 4.5 Ks
- BallParkPal's Pitcher Simulations: 4.4 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 3.9 Ks
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-136)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
| Best Line | PointsBet |
Bryce Harper is a man on a mission. He is slashing .419/.455/.935 for a 1.390 OPS and a 280 wRC+. He has four doubles and four home runs in just 31 ABs, meaning he's hitting for extra bases in a quarter of his appearances.
Harper is entering Philadelphia lore with this postseason run.
Bryce Harper is the second Phillie in franchise history to homer in three straight postseason games in a single year. He joins Gary Matthews who did so in 1983.
— PhilliesNotes (@PhilliesNotes) October 19, 2022
I would be very scared if I were Joe Musgrove today.
First, Harper is just 3-for-14 lifetime off Musgrove but is due for plenty of positive regression'. His 92.5mph avg. exit velocity and 13.2-degree avg. launch angle calculates a .363 xBA and a .516 xSLG. Harper has mashed balls off Musgrove.
Second, Harper adores Musgrove's arsenal. Musgrove has four pitches he relies on, and Harper has smashed all four pitches.
| Pitch | Musgrove % Thrown | Harper SLG% Against |
|---|---|---|
| Slider | 0.244 | .500 |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 0.24 | .637 |
| Cutter | 0.194 | .706 |
| Curveball | 0.191 | .512 |
Harper also has the platoon split advantage, too, given he's posted a 148 wRC+ and a .253 ISO against RHPs compared to a 117 wRC+ and .173 ISO against southpaws.
Plus, BallParkPal's Matchup Tool projects that Harper has a 12% higher chance of smacking an extra-base hit off Musgrove than in normal matchups.
So, sit back and watch Harper murder Musgrove's arsenal today. Even if he doesn't cash his bases total off the starter, he'll face a Padres bullpen that is the worst in the playoffs.
Harper has cashed his bases total in seven straight games during this run, piling up a whopping 29 bases during the stretch. I'll bet him to do it one more time.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+140)
