Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season. We've reached the final chapter of the 2024 MLB season with Yankees vs Dodgers in the World Series.
The goal for Opening Pitch remains the same for the Fall Classic: Highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite World Series bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every World Series game are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best World Series lines on our MLB Odds page.
Check out my series preview if you're looking for World Series futures and props.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and preview for Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 on Friday, October 25.
MLB World Series Predictions & Expert Picks, Preview Today
Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 Preview
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -195 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs. RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD)
This World Series matches the top two offenses from 2024; the Dodgers led the NL with a 118 wRC+, while the Yankees paced the AL and ranked second in MLB with a 117 wRC+.
That mimics their rankings in the 2024 postseason; the Dodgers have posted a playoff-best 122 wRC+ in 11 games, while the Yankees rank second with a mark of 116 in nine games.
Both lineups grind down opposing pitching staffs, too, ranking in the top five in pitches seen per plate appearance (Yankees third at 3.99, Dodgers fifth at 3.95).
The Yankees have better season-long splits against right-handed pitching, posting a 120 wRC+ (first in MLB) compared to 117 for the Dodgers (second).
However, the Dodgers lineup missed several stars for significant stretches of the season. After Max Muncy returned to their lineup on Aug. 19, they led MLB with a 134 wRC+, including a mark of 133 against right-handed pitching.
Typically, I'd give Los Angeles a slight offensive advantage. Still, Freddie Freeman (.219 avg., 461 OPS in the postseason) nursing an ankle injury pushes these two offenses closer together.
I computed the above defensive rating based on Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), which preferred the Dodgers' defense this season (3rd, +66 vs. 12th, +31 for the Yankees).
However, Outs Above Average (OAA) preferred the AL champions (+9, 11th vs. -2, 18th for the Dodgers) — and so does my model.
New York has better positional defenders, but Los Angeles optimizes its defensive positioning better as an organization and shifts its infield as aggressively as any team in baseball.
Per Mark Simon, "The Dodgers led the majors with 51 Positioning Runs Saved this season. Both their infield positioning total (34) and outfield positioning total (17) ranked No. 1 in MLB."
Miguel Rojas (+11 DRS, +12 OAA), ranked as the Dodgers' best defender this year by a significant margin but played through a torn adductor down the stretch, which he reinjured in the NLDS. Rojas is questionable for the World Series; Tommy Edman ranks closer to an average defender in that position.
Mookie Betts (-4 OAA, +3 DRS) was a liability at shortstop early in the year. Still, even his outfield metrics (neutral in OAA and DRS) have taken a hit, as he shockingly ranks in the 30th percentile for sprint speed (47th percentile in 2023, 52nd in 2022).
However, Austin Wells (+7 Strike Zone Runs Saved, +11 DRS) should help his pitching staff much more than Will Smith (-5 Strike Zone, -4 DRS).
This borderline pitch — a hanging, high backdoor curve that missed its spot with the umpire set up inside — rarely gets called a strike, but with Wells' frame job, it's automatic:
And that's a pitch that was actually in the zone — there are other examples of Wells turning ball four into strike three this postseason.
Gerrit Cole owns better season-long numbers than Jack Flaherty, but he's also healthier this deep into the season.
The Yankees considered trading for Flaherty at the deadline but balked at his medicals. Subtle velocity changes can have drastic effects on Flaherty's effectiveness.
Flaherty's fastball and slider velocity (which averaged 93.5 mph and 84.8 mph through August) dipped to 91.8 mph and 83.8 mph (down 1.5 and 1.0 mph) in his final two starts of the season, which represented his lowest over any two-game appearance since 2017. And September was his worst month this year (4.07 FIP, 13.4% KBB%).
The velocity returned after 10 days of rest in NLDS Game 2 against San Diego, when he averaged 93.3 mph on his fastball and 84.7 mph on his slider — and he maintained those levels on five days of rest in NLCS Game 1 against the Mets (92.6 mph on his fastball and 85.2 mph on his slider).
However, in Game 5, his fastball velocity dipped to 91.4 mph and his slider to 83.9 mph on regular rest. His average and maximum fastball velocity sat two ticks below his season average.
Flaherty turned over the Mets' lineup five times in the NLCS. He recorded four strikeouts and one walk the first time through the order, compared to two strikeouts and five walks over his final four turns.
He's had a week to rest since Game 5, and I expect his velocity to bounce back for the first few innings on Friday.
Still, I'd look to live bet against Flaherty the second time through the Yankees order, whether playing the Yankees on the moneyline, betting the Over, or betting the live Unders on Flaherty's strikeout and outs props.
Additionally, I'd bet Flaherty Under 4.5 Strikeouts at plus money rather than Under 14.5 Outs at plus money or laying juice on Over 2.5 Walks or 2.5 Earned Runs. Wait for a live Under 15.5 Outs.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts can't be overly aggressive with his bullpen in Game 1 given the thinness of his starting staff.
However, the Yankees had the highest BB/K ratio (0.51) in MLB — getting through their lineup efficiently is challenging. The Dodgers offense ranked second by that metric (0.45), and both teams have increased their patience this offseason (0.64 and 0.62, respectively).
Bet Cole Under 15.5 Outs Recorded; the Yankees can afford to be more aggressive with their relievers.
Both teams still need to make roster decisions regarding their bullpens; I'll pair down these graphics once they finalize the squads.
The Yankees seem likely to include Nestor Cortes as a third lefty to combat Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman and Gavin Lux.
Freeman has struggled in the postseason with an ankle injury (.219 avg, .461 OPS) and has cleared 1.5 total bases in just two of eight contests. He likely needs two hits to do so, too, because he isn't legging out a double on that ankle unless he hits a ball deep into a corner. Lay the juice on Freeman Under 1.5 Total Bases, or bet Under 1.5 Total Hits + Runs + RBI (-115).
The Dodgers are awaiting the injury status of high-leverage arms, including Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol, which could leave Landon Knack sidelined.
I project these two units to be about equally effective; however, the Dodgers bullpen seems likelier to fatigue after consuming 59% of their team's postseason innings (and tossing 19 additional frames), compared to 43% for the Yankees bullpen.
The Yankees relievers have better stuff and superior season-long metrics. Their bullpen ranked 11th in xFIP, 15th in K-BB%, fourth in Stuff+ and 20th in botERA, compared to 23rd, 16th, 20th and 9th for the Dodgers.
After the trade deadline, New York's bullpen ranked 3rd, 11th, 6th and 20th by the same four indicators; Los Angeles ranked 24th, 18th, 11th and 17th, respectively.
I set the Dodgers as -108 favorites (51.6% implied) in Game 1, and I would bet the Yankees at +111 (47.4% implied) or better.
I set the Dodgers' F5 (first five innings) line at -105 and would bet Yankees F5 at +109 (47.8% implied) or better.
We should have perfect baseball weather: 78 degrees at first pitch (74 mid-game) with 4-5 mph winds blowing out to right-center field.
My updated projection with plate umpire Carlos Torres (career 52.2% to the Over, +1.2% ROI) is 8.73 runs; bet Over 8.5 at plus money.
As of Thursday night, I don't project value on either the side or the total, but the Yankees aren't far out of range (+110 current), and I will continue to monitor both markets.
To reiterate, target the Yankees and Over live after Flaherty turns over their order one time. And play the live unders on Flaherty's strikeouts and outs props at the same point of the game.
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & World Series Picks for Friday, October 25
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Gerrit Cole, Under 15.5 Outs Record (-125, Risk 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Jack Flaherty, Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120, 0.25u) at Caesars
- Freddie Freeman, Under 1.5 Total Bases (-199, 0.1u) at Caesars
