Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and previews for the ALDS games on Monday, October 7.
MLB Predictions Monday, Expert Picks & ALDS Previews Today
MLB Futures Update and Divisional Series Prices
My updated projection for Dodgers–Padres assumes that Freddie Freeman, who left Game 2 with an ankle injury, will play the remainder of the series at full strength. Compared to my projected series prices before Game 3, I'd want around +105 to bet on the Dodgers or +112 on the Padres.
I would have projected the Mets as nearly 85% series favorites headed back to Citi Field with a 2-0 series lead, and their Game 2 loss was worth nearly a 40% reduction toward their series win probability. Compared to the best available odds, I don't project any value concerning their updated series line (Phillies -135; Mets +120).
For AL correct score markets, I project value on Cleveland 3-2 (projected +365, listed +430 at FanDuel) and Kansas City 3-2 (projected +421, listed +650 at Caesars and DraftKings).
Considering I already have the Guardians series moneyline from before Game 1 — and that Tarik Skubal would start for the Tigers in a potential Game 5 — I'm happy to pass on that Cleveland-Detroit correct score prop.
However, I'm interested in the Royals winning in five games (3-2 correct score) for similar reasons; Cole Ragans will start for Kansas City in Game 2 and again on whole rest in a potential Game 5.
While I'm comfortable betting the Royals' 3-2 correct score prop to about +450, there are better ways to play the comeback in the series outcome (DraftKings) or exact order (FanDuel) markets:
- G1 NYY / G2 KCR / G3 KCR / G4 NYY / G5 KCR (+1700)
- G1 NYY / G2 KCR / G3 NYY / G4 KCR / G5 KCR (+2200)
In other words, you can structure a wager on the Royals to win both of Ragans' starts in Games 2 and 5 — with either Game 3 or Game 4 — rather than winning Games 3, 4, and 5 consecutively (which is far less likely, but also included in their 3-2 correct score prop) at substantially better odds.
If you're interested in betting the Tigers down 1-0 against the Guardians, I would place the same pair of exact order prop bets: Detroit to win Games 2 and 5, with either Game 3 or 4:
- G1 CLE / G2 DET / G3 DET / G4 CLE / G5 DET (+1200)
- G1 CLE / G2 DET / G3 CLE / G4 DET / G5 DET (+2200)
Tigers vs Guardians
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 6 -112o / -108u | -130 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 6 -112o / -108u | +110 |
LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) vs LHP Matthew Boyd (CLE)
My contrarian side isn't surprised to find that my model shows the Tigers are overvalued behind presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal (2.70 xERA, 24.6% K-BB%, 106 Pitching+, 3.26 botERA) in Game 2.
To be clear, I bet Skubal at +2200 to win the Cy Young Award in the preseason and I currently rate him as the best pitcher in the AL — and a close second-best in MLB to Paul Skenes. Skubal's tremendous, but I can't get to the Tigers as road favorites in this matchup.
I projected the Guardians around -112 and I would bet the home underdogs at any plus-money price behind former Tiger Matthew Boyd (3.10 xERA, 19.9% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 4.38 botERA), who excelled in a limited sample size (39 2/3 innings over eight starts) following Tommy John surgery.
Cleveland has the better offensive splits with both teams facing a southpaw starter, ranking 8th on the season (114 wRC+) and 11th in the second half (108 wRC+) compared to 23rd (88 wRC+) and 26th (82) for Detroit.
The Guardians also put more balls into play, ranking second in strikeout rate (18.6%) against lefties in the second half, while the Tigers had the highest strikeout rate (30.7%) against southpaws over the same span.
Still, I wouldn't bet the strikeout total over for Boyd (4.5, -150), especially considering his outs prop is 12.5 and heavily juiced to the under at -140. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt can be highly aggressive with his bullpen with Game 2 sandwiched between off-days.
I rate Cleveland's bullpen (2nd in xFIP, 2nd in K-BB%, 11th in Pitching+, 16th in botERA) as the better of the two relief units (Detroit ranks 16th, 17th, 19th and 24th on the season), although Skubal should pitch deep into this contest. He only faced the Guardians once this season (7 IP, 10 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K on July 22) but he has limited current opposing hitters to a .663 OPS across 65 plate appearances.
Pitcher-friendly weather (61 degrees at first pitch, 9 mph winds blowing in from left field) after an extra off-day to rest these bullpens lowered my projection to 5.8 runs — bet Under 6.5 to -117.
Royals vs Yankees
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | +130 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | -155 |
LHP Cole Ragans (KC) vs LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY)
As I mentioned above, the Royals likely need to rally behind ace Cole Ragans (3.27 xERA, 20.5% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.50 botERA), who can pitch Games 2 and 5 on whole rest, to have a chance of advancing to the ALCS.
Ragans will face Carlos Rodon (4.14 xERA, 18.8% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+, 3.83 botERA), who pitched better in the second half (3.67 xFIP, 21.3% K-BB%) than the first half (4.36 xFIP, 17.2% K-BB%) after an injury-riddled 2023 season.
These left-handed starters force both opposing offenses into their lesser splits.
The Yankees' league-best offense against right-handed pitching (120 wRC+) dropped to 10th (107 wRC+) against lefties. The Royals are near league average against righties (99 wRC+, 16th) but fell to 26th against lefties 84 wRC+) — including a 66 wRC+ (29th) over the season's final two months.
As I have discussed all year, the Royals offense has been substantially less effective on the road (92 wRC+, 21st) than at home (100 wRC+, 15th)
I don't trust either bullpen — both rank close to league average by underlying indicators and pitch modeling metrics (Yankees 11th and Royals 14th in second-half xFIP, 11th vs. 10th in K-BB%, 13th vs. 20th in Pitching+, 15th vs. 12th in botERA).
Still, both managers can afford to be aggressive with their high-leverage relievers, with Game 2 sandwiched between a pair of off-days.
The Royals' defense can prevent runs (1st in Outs Above Average), and the Yankees struggle to score without walks or the long ball. Ragans has bouts of control issues but he generally keeps the ball in the yard (career 0.78 HR/9).
Both pitchers could get additional strike calls from plate umpire Ryan Blakney (career 55.4% Under, +$1,908, +6.8% ROI), providing a projected strikeout boost for both starters.
However, both offenses possess an above-average strikeout rate against left-handed pitching (Yankees 5th, Royals 12th in the second half). I might prefer the outs recorded Over 15.5 at plus money for both starters.
I projected the totals for Game 2 at 3.71 for the first five innings (F5) and 7.02 for the entire game — bet the F5 Under to 4 (-110) and the full game Under to 7.5 (-110).
Additionally, consider the exact series outcome props discussed above, with the Royals winning in Game 5 at +1700 and +2200. And consider the outs recorded Overs for both starting pitchers at plus money.
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Monday, October 7
- Cleveland Guardians (+115, 0.5u; bet to +100)
- Cleveland Guardians / Detroit Tigers Under 6.5 (-114, Risk 0.5u; flat to -115)
- Kansas City Royals / New York Yankees F5 Under 4.5 (-128, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to -150 or 4, -110)
- Kansas City Royals / New York Yankees Under 8 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to 7, -115)
- Series Exact Outcome: G1 NYY / G2 KCR / G3 KCR / G4 NYY / G5 KCR (+1700, 0.05u) at DraftKings
- Series Exact Outcome: G1 NYY / G2 KCR / G3 NYY / G4 KCR / G5 KCR (+2200, 0.05u) at DraftKings
