Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Monday, April 14.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Monday MLB predictions and picks.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks, Previews — 4/14
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Zerillo's Giants vs. Phillies Preview, Moneyline Picks
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +100 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -120 |
Landen Roupp (SF) vs. Taijuan Walker (PHI)
The Giants (11-4) are off to a hot start, thanks partly to outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, who only played 37 games last season with a shoulder injury after departing Korea and signing a six-year deal.
Lee smacked three homers at Yankee Stadium over the weekend, helping San Francisco to its first-ever series series-win in the Bronx:
The homer on Friday had an expected batting average of .580 (100.5 mph exit velocity), and the two on Sunday had marks of .770 and .150 (103.2 and 94.5 mph exit velocities); none of the three batted balls would have left Oracle Park in San Francisco.
Projection systems have Lee hitting about 10 homers over a full season (with the most optimistic projection calling for 12), with approximately 40 doubles and triples, a .285 batting average, and a .340 on-base percentage. He's a solid tablesetter, but power won't be a significant part of his game.
Lee rates on the lower end of the bat speed scale (68.6 mph, 13th percentile), and the hardest he's ever hit a ball in an MLB game (108.9 max EV in 2024) ranked in the 39th percentile of MLB hitters last season.
Monday will mark our third consecutive start backing Landen Roupp, who has expanded his arsenal while working out of the Giants' starting rotation this season. He's reduced his curveball usage (from 44% to 29%) for additional changeups (up from 9.4% to 18.9%) and a newfound cutter (7%).
Roupp's sinker (100 Stuff+) and curveball (109) are highly effective offerings, but stuff models don't like the changeup (87 Stuff+) or cutter (80).
I'd expect him to keep tinkering with the pitch mix, but a high ground-ball rate (50% or above at every level in his pro career) gives Roupp a high floor.
Taijuan Walker has pitched exceptionally well through two starts (3.60 xERA, 4.34 xFIP). There's indications he can pitch closer to his 2023 level (4.38 ERA, 4.36 xERA) than his disastrous 2024 season (7.10 ERA and 7.09 xERA).
Primarily, Walker's fastball velocity (92.8 mph vs. 91.5 in 2024) and swinging strike rate have returned to their 2023 levels, and his Stuff+ figure has improved from 84 to 94 (91 in 2023) year over year.
Still, both his called-strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) and botERA stand at a six-year lows; Walker's stuff is better, but his command has been a touch worse; and I still project Roupp as the significantly more effective pitcher; enough to get the Giants to road favorites (projected -106) in my model.
Pick: Giants F5 Moneyline (bet to -105) | Giants Moneyline (bet to +102)
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Royals vs. Yankees: Preview for ALDS Rematch
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | +114 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | -135 |
Seth Lugo (KC) vs. Carlos Carrasco (NYY)
The Yankees are using Carlos Carrasco (projected FIP range of 4.73 to 5.55) to fill some of Gerrit Cole's lost innings. Carrasco's permitted 10 runs across 11 2/3 innings (6.07 xERA), while displaying career-low velocity readings on each pitch in his arsenal (and a matching career-low 85 Stuff+ figure). He is the poster boy for replacement-level starting pitchers in 2025.
Seth Lugo has been shaky (4.11 xERA) following a second-place finish in AL Cy Young voting last season. Lugo's swinging-strike rate (6.8%) and called-strike plus whiff rate (25.7%) both stand at career lows, and both his Location+ rating (down from 99 to 89) and botERA (up from 4.29 to 5.53) show concerns in his current strike-throwing abilities and indicate potential injury downside.
In a limited sample, Lugo's strikeout minus walk rate (7.6%) is nearly half his 2024 level. And while its only three starts, strikeout rate stabilizes within a month, and command concerns indicates increased injury risk for Lugo.
I project the Yankees' offense about 10 points better in terms of wRC+ (roughly 119 vs. 109 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching) than Kansas City. I also make them the slightly better defensive team, with the more valuable baserunners.
I projected the total in this game at exactly nine runs and would bet Over 8.5 to -110.
Additionally, bet the Yankees on the moneyline in a potential slugfest (projected -135, bet to -125). Hopefully Carrasco can hand over a competitive game to these more comparably rated bullpens.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline (bet to -125) | Over 8.5 (bet to -110)
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Red Sox vs. Rays: How to Bet the Over/Under
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +100 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -120 |
Tanner Houck (BOS) vs. Shane Baz (TB)
The wind is blowing out in Tampa on Monday (5-7 mph winds) with 79-degree first pitch temperatures, raising my projected total to 9.1 runs; bet Over 8.5 to -115.
As I mentioned last week, the wind could have as dramatic an impact at George M. Steinbrenner Field as it does at Wrigley Field in Chicago due to the area's higher average wind speeds and a lack of structural shielding (a smaller stadium with no surrounding skyscrapers) to block the effects of the wind.
Hitters are gaining or losing 60 feet or more of batted-ball distance and playing into the short porch in right field (its dimensions match Yankee Stadium).
This homer from Yandy Diaz had an expected batting average of .020 — the wind pushed it about 20% further than it should have flown, based upon the average distance for batted balls at that trajectory:
The park might play like more of a pitcher's park at night in August and September — as wind patterns change and the wind blows in more frequently in the evening — but in the spring, the wind seems to be blowing out frequently, as it has (and should continue to) during the day.
I remain concerned about Tanner Houck (5.34 xERA, 4.5% K-BB% through three starts) after a poor second-half showing in 2024 (4.37 xFIP vs. 3.16 in the first half, and K-BB% plummeted from 18% to 7.5%), following a significant innings increase (career-high 178 2/3 vs. 106 in 2023). His Stuff+ figures are down (106 to 98), but the velocity is intact across his entire arsenal.
I was an early Shane Baz adopter, and he's looked tremendous in 2025 (2.70 xERA, 107 Stuff+, 3.85 botERA).
Still, I do view the Red Sox offense as a significantly better unit against right-handed pitching than against lefties. Getting the platoon advantage — or not — for most of the game against Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, and Wilyer Abreu is worth about a 12-point difference (in terms of wRC+) in expected production for Boston's lineup.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (bet to +100) | Over 8.5 (bet to -115)
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