Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, June 2.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Angels vs Red Sox, Twins vs Athletics, and Mets vs Dodgers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Monday, June 2
Angels vs Red Sox
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -150 |
LHP Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs RHP Richard Fitts (BOS)
The Red Sox offense is struggling without Alex Bregman, posting a 95 wRC+ since he was placed on the IL.
They’re also in their lesser split on Monday, facing the Angels' left-handed starter, Tyler Anderson. Steamer projects three current Boston hitters as above-average against the side (Rafael Devers, Rob Refsnyder, Kristian Campbell), and the lineup projects out with a 97 wRC+ against southpaws.
While Boston’s lineup continues to flail, the Angels’ lineup looks legit.
They project out with a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with seven of the top nine guys with a projected wRC+ above 100 against the side. Zach Neto is a two-way superstar (125 wRC+, +3 DRS, 1.2 fWAR in 39 games), while Logan O’Hoppe is on pace for a 30-homer season (126 wRC+).
Plus, Mike Trout is back. The Angels are easing Trout back into play, as he’s playing DH and took Sunday off. He was very unlucky in April and due for some positive regression at the plate (.306 wOBA, .372 xwOBA).
The Red Sox have the pitching advantage. I prefer Richard Fitts (4.12 xERA, projected FIP range of 4.25-to-4.69) to Tyler Anderson (3.96 xERA, projected FIP range of 4.72-to-5.20). Plus, the Angels have a bottom-five bullpen by xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate, although the Red Sox have struggled mightily in relief over the past month.
Still, I project the Red Sox as just -120 moneyline favorites, and would bet the Angels at +130 or better.
Additionally, I project 10.1 runs for the game and will look to bet the Over once I have umpire information — I’d be happy to bet Over 9 at -120 or better.
Pick: Angels ML (+135 | Play to +130)
Twins vs Athletics
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 9 -115o / -105u | -150 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9 -115o / -105u | +125 |
RHP Joe Ryan (MIN) vs RHP Luis Severino (ATH)
The Athletics have lost six straight games and 15 of 16 — they went 7-21 in May with a -78 run differential.
Conversely, the Twins went 18-8 in May with a +26 run differential, and they recently welcomed back Byron Buxton, one of the best baserunners and defenders in the sport.
I prefer Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan (3.18 xERA, 26% K-BB, 106 Pitching+, 3.45 botERA) to Athletics starter Luis Severino (4.07 xERA, 10.5% K-BB, 104 Pitching+, 3.88 botERA).
However, Ryan is homer-prone (career 1.40 HR/9 allowed) and will be pitching in a very hitter-friendly ballpark (+25% Runs, +32% Doubles, +23% Triples, +18% Home Runs).
Conversely, Severino started throwing a sinker last season, which has significantly helped his home run problem and is an excellent pitch for this venue.
The Twins have a significant bullpen advantage, but the Athletics are a legit top-10 offense (7th in wRC+ on the season), while Minnesota’s lineup has been closer to bottom-10 (19th in wRC+ on the season).
I project the Twins moneyline at -119 and would bet the A’s at +130 or better.
Pick: Athletics ML (+140 | Play to +130)
Mets vs Dodgers
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 -115o / -105u | -170 |
RHP Paul Blackburn (NYM) vs RHP Dustin May (LAD)
I played and cashed all three Overs in the Yankees-Dodgers World Series rematch, and I will attempt to do the same for the Mets-Dodgers NLCS rematch after all six games between the two teams went Over last October.
Mets starting pitcher Paul Blackburn will make his 2025 debut after knee inflammation held him out for April and May. He looked fine in his six rehab appearances (27 ⅓ IP, 17 H, 30 K, 11 BB), although he was underwhelming last season (4.60 xERA, 12% K-BB).
Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin May is underachieving (4.20 ERA, 4.44 xERA) compared to his projected FIP range (3.96-to-4.16, 3.85 average).
The Dodgers' lineup is a bad matchup for the Mets' bullpen. Lefties are ineffective against Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and Michael Conforto, which is a problem when relievers A.J. Minter and Danny Young are out for the season. The Mets had a bottom-five bullpen against left-handed hitters in May (5.26 xFIP, 6.4% K-BB).
Both offenses are in their better split against the opposing starting pitcher. The Dodgers lead MLB in wRC+ against right-handed pitching (131), while the Mets ranked third in May (119).
Neither team has an off-day until next Monday, and the Dodgers didn’t get much length from Sunday starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto — both of these starting pitchers may have the push the envelope in this matchup.
I project the total at 9.65 runs.
Pick: Over 9 (-106 | Play to -115)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, June 2
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- Athletics ML (+140 | Play to +130)
- Angels ML (+135 | Play to +130)
- Mets vs Dodgers Over 9 (-106 | Play to -115)
