Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Sunday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and previews for both the ALCS and NLCS on Sunday, October 13.
MLB Predictions & NLCS Expert Picks, Preview for Mets vs Dodgers
MLB Futures Update and Championship Series Prices
- ALCS Projections
- NLCS Projections
- World Series Projections:
- Yankees: 33.5% (+198)
- Dodgers: 32.2% (+211)
- Guardians: 18.4% (+443)
- Mets: 15.9% (+528)
I project slight value on Cleveland to win the ALCS and the World Series.
I projected the Guardians as +154 underdogs (39.3% implied) against the Yankees and would bet their ALCS price at +168 (37.3% implied) or better. While there's a +172 available at FanDuel, I already have a Yankees AL Pennant ticket (+150) from before the ALDS.
You could use our hedge calculator to lock in a profit for the AL Pennant, or take a piece off that Yankees position. I'd rather skip ahead and sprinkle the Guardians to win the World Series (at +500 or better). Either the Yankees AL ticket cashes (and we lose the small Guardians wager), or we're live to the Guardians World Series ticket.
I also project value on other iterations involving Cleveland, like a Guardians over Mets World Series Exacta (projected +1072, listed +1200) or Guardians over Dodgers exacta (projected +912, listed +1200).
Additionally, I project the slightest edge on Cleveland to win the ALCS 4-1 (projected +850, listed +900); however, the discrepancy isn't substantial enough to make it actionable.
I'd bet the Mets' NL Pennant price at +165 or better (37.8% implied) compared to my projection at +151 (39.8% implied).
I also project the slightest edge on the Mets' series spread (+1.5 games, -135) at DraftKings compared to my projected line of -139 (39.9% to win the series and 18.3% to lose in Game 5). However, I'd typically want -128 or better to make that edge actionable (and would settle for -130).
If you're hoping for a potential Subway World Series, I'd set Yankees over Mets at 15.5% (+547 implied) and Mets over Yankees at 8.8% (+1040 implied). However, I wouldn't necessarily recommend either bet compared to +500 and +850 consensus odds, respectively.
The likeliest outcomes are Dodgers over Yankees (projected 18.4%, +443 implied) or Yankees over Dodgers (18.1%, +454 implied). I'm lower on both outcomes than the betting markets, with the best available odds of +330 and +380, respectively, at FanDuel.
Mets vs Dodgers
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8 -115o / -105u | +135 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8 -115o / -105u | -160 |
RHP Kodai Senga (NYM) vs. RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD)
The Mets and Dodgers will face one another in the playoffs for the first time since 2015, when Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom outpitched prime Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke en route to the NL Pennant.
This play from the 2006 NLDS sticks in my mind, however — it's like something out of a movie:
The Dodgers won four of the six meetings with the Mets this season (+16 run differential), but those games also occurred in April and May during the Mets' worst stretch of baseball.
The Mets spent nearly the entire season without their expected ace, Kodai Senga. He missed the majority of the season with a shoulder injury, strained his calf in his lone MLB start and experienced triceps tightness while rehabbing his calf in September.
Senga seemed relatively sharp in his Game 1 start against the Phillies (2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K) after serving up a leadoff homer to Kyle Schwarber.
He generated an impressive 32% CSW% (called-strike plus whiff rate), albeit in 31 pitches. Still, Senga's fastball velocity only averaged 94.3 mph — down 1.5 mph from his lone 2024 start and 2023 average (95.8 mph).
The Mets plan to let Senga stretch out to 50-60 pitches after tossing 31 a week ago. Given the anticipated usage, Senga Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-110), Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (120) and Over 0.5 Earned Runs (-170) each seem a touch low.
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza may have indicated yesterday that Senga would pitch "about three innings," but after his NLDS start, he set the next target at 60 pitches. I expect Senga to start the fourth inning and go batter by batter.
I'd expect David Peterson (4.58 xERA, 10.8% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.54 botERA) and Tylor Megill (4.22 xERA, 17.5% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 3.92 botERA) to be ready behind him. Suddenly, the Mets have six healthy starting pitchers and can deploy them however they want.
By piggybacking Senga with other pitchers in Game 1, they can save their most effective pitcher, Sean Manaea, for their most significant starting pitching advantage of the series: against Walker Buehler in Games 2 and 6.
Still, the Mets only have one lefty in the bullpen beyond Peterson (2.53 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.66 vs. righties), and Danny Young (2.48 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.18 vs. righties) is someone that you bring in to get one or two lefties to end an inning — you don't want him in to face any right-handed hitters.
Mendoza needs to manage Peterson's workload carefully. Over the next week, they might need him to get a lot of outs against Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux.
Offensively, the Mets fared better against lefties (4th) than righties (11th), although that gap closed in the second half (8th and 12th).
The Dodgers' lineup wasn't fully healthy for much of the season. Still, after Muncy returned to their lineup in late August, Los Angeles posted an MLB-best 135 wRC+, showcasing its massive upside.
They don't show a discernible split either, ranking second against righties (117 wRC+) and first against lefties (121 wRC+) on the season.
However, aside from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, I don't trust their starting pitching.
Jack Flaherty (3.51 xERA, 24% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 4.27 botERA) was among the best pitchers in MLB through August (2.78 xFIP and 26.3% K-BB%), but September was his worst month this season (4.07 FIP, 13.4% KBB%).
Flaherty's fastball and slider velocity (averaged 93.5 mph and 84.8 mph through August) dipped to 91.8 mph and 83.8 mph (down 1.5 and 1.0 mph) in his final two starts of the season, which represents his lowest over any two-game appearance since 2017.
His velocity returned in NLDS Game 2 against San Diego, when he averaged 93.3 mph on his fastball and 84.7 mph on his slider.
Perhaps the 10 days of rest between his final regular season start and Game 2 gave Flaherty's arm additional time to recover — and he's had another six days off since that outing.
Still, I'm inclined to bet Flaherty over 1.5 Walks (-150), with his outs prop juiced to Over 15.5 (-125) after the Dodgers' aggressive bullpen usage to finish off the Padres in the NLDS.
Flaherty's walk rate has increased as his velocity has dipped, and the Padres were overly aggressive against him, chasing their way out of five three-ball counts in his last start.
I model the two bullpens about the same, but the Mets had the better second-half metrics (7th in xFIP, 7th in K-BB%, 23rd in botERA vs. 19th, 18th, and 16th for the Dodgers) and a couple of additional rest days before Game 1.
A Sunday appearance from Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen or Evan Phillips would mark their third in five days for Los Angeles while Michael Kopech has the potential for his fourth in six days.
I rate the Mets as the slightly better defensive team — DRS prefers the Dodgers (4th vs. 14th) while OAA prefers the Mets (11th vs. 19th). However, the Dodgers are better on the basepaths, and the Mets also rank in the bottom five by sprint speed.
I projected the Mets as +128 underdogs for Sunday and would bet their moneyline at +135 or better.
I set the total at 7.7 runs and would bet Under 8 at -102 (currently -104 at FanDuel).
The plate umpire for Game 1 is pitcher-friendly Jeremie Rehak (career 54.1% to the Under, +$716, +4.2% ROI), and these lineups aren't overly familiar with the other team's relievers, which seemed problematic in the Mets-Phillies NLDS after those teams played seven times in September.
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Sunday, October 13
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- Jack Flaherty, Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-150, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Kodai Senga, Over 0.5 Earned Runs (-166, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Kodai Senga, Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (+120, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Kodai Senga, Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-106, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- New York Mets (+142, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +135)
