Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday, April 3.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Thursday MLB predictions and picks.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Thursday, April 3
  |   |   |   |
Red Sox vs. Orioles
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -125o / 105u | -110 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -125o / 105u | -110 |
Tanner Houck (BOS) vs. Charlie Morton (BAL)
Tanner Houck and Charlie Morton will take the ball for the second time this season after each permitted four runs in their March 28 outings (at Texas and Toronto, respectively).
Houck (4.11 xERA, 3.58 xFIP, 14.3% K-BB%, 106 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+, 3.52 botERA in 2024) is just 28 years old; he is in his third season as a full-time starter after tossing a career-high 178 2/3 innings last season.
Pitching models love his arsenal, which has four offerings above 100 Stuff+ (108 sinker, 117 slider, 106 splitter, 101 four-seamer), but Houck struggled with command in the second half of 2024 (23.5% K-BB% in the first half; 15.8% in the second half as his xFIP increased from 3.16 to 4.37).
In a limited sample this season, across four spring starts and his first regular-season outing, Houck has walked eight hitters against just nine strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings. I'm concerned that he's dealing with an underlying injury after blowing through his previous career high in innings by 72 frames.
The 41-year-old Morton modified his plan of attack in his first start with the Orioles — using his curveball just 29% of the time (42-43% the past two seasons) while mixing in more sinkers (15%) and four-seam fastballs (40%, up from 25.9% career).
The curve (120 Stuff+) is his bread and butter, but Morton needs to find a way to set it up. The sinker (104 Stuff+) grades out as his second-best pitch, but unfortunately, it doesn't tunnel with his curve nearly as well as the four-seamer would.
Underlying metrics suggest that Morton has been a below-average pitcher for the past two seasons. His K-BB% dipped from 19.5% to 14% and 14.6%, and his xERA floated up from 4.08 to 4.64 and 4.49 since 2022.
While Houck (projected FIP range of 3.74 to 4.19) gives Boston a clear starting pitching edge over Baltimore (projected FIP range of 4.23 to 4.63 for Morton), I prefer the Orioles' bullpen, which I rate as a top-five unit in MLB, compared to the Red Sox, who I'd rank closer to tenth.
Gunnar Henderson should return to the Orioles lineup, giving Baltimore the offensive advantage (projected 122 vs. 111 wrC+ vs. righties). I rate their lineup as the superior group both defensively and on the basepaths, too.
Bet the Orioles moneyline to -107 (projected -117), assuming that Henderson will bat atop their lineup for the first time this season.
Additionally, I projected the total at 9.82 runs, with warm temperatures (74 degrees at first pitch) for early April, 15-16 mph winds blowing out to center field, and hitter-friendly umpire Edwin Moscoso behind the dish. Bet the Over to 9.5 (-103),
Moscoso's historical record to the Over/Under doesn't influence my rating for his influence on the total. Still, he has been a drastic Over umpire (80-47-7, 62.9%, +21% ROI) in a five-year sample (11-9-2 last season).
Picks: Orioles Moneyline (bet to -107) | Over 9 (bet to 9.5, -103)
Rockies vs. Phillies
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
Antonio Senzatela (COL) vs. Taijuan Walker (PHI)
Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia will also feature excellent hitting conditions (71 degrees at first pitch, 14-16 mph winds blowing out to right center) and bad starting pitchers on Thursday.
Edit: My updated total after lineups and latest weather is for 10.33 runs; bet an Over 9.5 to -122 or Over 10 to -10.
Antonio Senzatela posted a 23.17 xERA in his first start of the season. Still, he didn't allow the Rays to score a single run, despite permitting nine hits and 14 hard-hit balls, per Statcast, without recording a single strikeout.
Antonio Senzatela is the first pitcher to allow 9+ hits and record 0 strikeouts but still allow 0 runs since Dave Dravecky on June 25, 1986.
— nugget chef (@jayhaykid) March 29, 2025
Senzatela's contract has to be the worst in MLB, and considering the value he will produce over its duration, it is arguably one of the worst in league history. The Rockies — a team that doesn't spend money — signed him to a 5-year, $50 million contract in October of 2021, a year in which he posted a 5.24 xERA and a 7.5% K-BB%.
He's missed time since with a torn ACL, and then Tommy John surgery limited him to five starts over the past two seasons. Still, since signing that extension, Senzatela has continued to perform as a replacement-level arm (4.38 xFIP, 4.76 SIERA, 5.8% K-BB%). Stuff models like his slider (101 Stuff+) and curveball (106).
At his best, Senzatela keeps the ball on the ground (50.5% career ground-ball rate) avoids barrels (90th percentile in 2022) and limits walks (83rd percentile), but his Location+ metrics have fallen since returning from injury as command is typically the first thing to go and last thing to return for pitchers following a UCL injury.
I'm surprised that Taijuan Walker (7.10 ERA, 7.09 xERA, 5.5% K-BB%) wasn't run out of town in Philadelphia last season despite showing career-worst indicators and pitch-modeling metrics (84 Stuff+, down from 98 in 2022).
Walker has lost more than two ticks of fastball velocity in two seasons (three in three years), and his profile has wholly imploded, from that of a league-average starter (3.94 xERA, 3.88 xFIP in 2022) to a FIP projection range between 4.83 and 5.34 for 2025.
Projections prefer Senzatela (projected FIP range of 4.39 to 5.10), and he fits nicely with a Rockies defense that projects as an above-average unit.
I projected Colorado around +165 (37.7% implied) in this matchup. I would consider betting their moneyline above +180 (35.7% implied), but I would prefer to wait for the market to get closer to +200 before firing on the underdog.
Pick: Rockies Moneyline (Wait for +200) | Over 9.5 (bet to -122 or 10, -103)
Astros vs. Twins
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7 -120o / 100u | +100 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +175 | 7 -120o / 100u | -120 |
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. Joe Ryan (MIN)
Conditions in Minneapolis will look quite a bit different than the East Coast on Thursday, with rain and snow in the forecast and temperatures expected in the low 40s at first pitch.
