Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, April 24.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Thursday, April 24
White Sox vs. Twins
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 8 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 8 -110o / -110u | -225 |
Shane Smith (CWS) vs. Chris Paddack (MIN)
Conditions in Minnesota should be pitcher friendly on Thursday afternoon — 52 degrees at first pitch and drizzling (with a real-feel temperature of 46 degrees) and 6-7 mph winds blowing in from center field.
The conditions triggered an Action Labs system for wind and weather, which has generated a 4.7% ROI since 2005:
My model projected this game for 7.42 runs; bet Under 8 to -112.
Chris Paddack has settled in after two abysmal outings (combined 13 runs allowed in 7 1/3 innings) to start his 2025 campaign. He limited the Braves and Tigers to two earned runs across 10 innings, with 11 strikeouts, five hits, and three walks allowed in his past two starts.
Projection systems place Paddcack closer to a league-average arm (projected FIP range of 3.94 to 4.25) than the No. 4 starter type results he's produced over the past two years (4.81 xERA in 2024, 4.66 in 2025).
Pitching models love his command (116 Location+ vs. 109 career; 3.09 botERA vs. 3.49 career) across his entire arsenal, but Paddack's changeup (103) grades out as his only above-average pitch by Stuff+.
As I discussed previously in this space, Shane Smith — the No. 1 pick in December's Rule 5 draft — has one elite pitch: a filthy, hard changeup (averaging 90.5 mph in his MLB debut) that offers only a five mph separation relative to his fastball.
The changeup is a plus offering (103 Stuff+), but the remainder of Smith's arsenal is below average (90 Stuff+ on his four-seamer, 94 slider, 88 curveball).
That said, he commands the fastball well (114 Location+) and projects as one of the White Sox better starting pitchers (projected FIP range of 4.17 to 4.69). Smith should take advantage of a soft matchup against a struggling Twins' offense (82 wRC+, 26th).
Pick: Under 8 (bet to -112)
Orioles vs. Nationals
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -130o / 100u | -105 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -130o / 100u | -115 |
Cade Povich (BAL) vs. MacKenzie Gore (WSH)
MacKenzie Gore is finally fulfilling his potential after getting picked third in the 2017 MLB draft.
Gore has posted a 31.1% K-BB% through five starts, nearly double his career average (16.2%). His xERA is down from 4.20 to 3.05, year over year, and his xFIP (2.30), Pitching+ rating (108), and botERA (3.19) are each career-best marks (averages of 3.93, 102, and 4.04, respectively).
Gore has typically shown reverse splits (career 4.01 xFIP, 13.3% K-BB% vs. lefties and 3.91 xFIP, 17.1% K-BB% vs. righties), but he is obliterating left-handed hitters this season (1.22 xFIP, 40.6% K-BB%), striking out 15 of the 32 lefties he's faced.
Gore is throwing a slider 42% of the time to lefties, compared to 5% last season, at the expense of his cutter (down from 28% to 2%).
While his projections have improved in-season (current FIP range of 3.51 to 3.75), the current version of Gore could still outperform the most optimistic forecasts.
Conversely, Cade Povich (projected FIP range of 4.12 to 4.55) has shown an average K-BB% (10.2%) and below-average ERA indicators early in his career (4.86 xFIP, 4.34 botERA).
Povich has below-average command, and no pitch in his arsenal has a Stuff+ figure higher than 96.
There's a substantial difference between these bullpens, and I'm not particularly interested in sweating Washington's relievers with a slight lead (7.09 ERA, 30th in MLB; 4.70 xFIP, 27th; 7.1% K-BB%, 27th).
I'd consider betting the Nationals on the full game moneyline at plus money (projected -108), but I prefer their F5 or first five innings moneyline, up to -120 (projected -130).
Pick: Nationals F5 Moneyline (bet to -120)
Pirates vs. Angels
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9 -102o / -118u | +120 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -102o / -118u | -145 |
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs. Tyler Anderson (LAA)
While Carmen Mlodzinski has produced underwhelming results through four starts (7.41 ERA, 5.01 xERA), pitching models and luck categories suggest that he's a substantially better arm (101 Pitching+, 3.96 botERA, 3.98 xFIP).
