Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, April 8.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Tuesday MLB predictions and picks.
MLB Predictions, Picks — 4/8
  |   |   |   |
Zerillo's White Sox vs. Guardians F5 Picks
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 7.5 100o / -120u | +162 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -195 |
Shane Smith (CWS) vs. Ben Lively (CLE)
The White Sox used the No. 1 pick in December's Rule 5 draft on Shane Smith. Chicago acquired the former undrafted free agent from the Brewers, after he posted solid numbers in the high minors (3.81 xFIP, 22.6% K-BB% in Double-A in 2023; 2.94 xFIP, 22% K-BB% at Triple-A in 2004).
Smith has one elite pitch: a filthy hard changeup (averaged 90.5 mph in his MLB debut) that only offers a five mph separation relative to his fastball:
Shane Smith flashed his elite changeup in his MLB debut!
Smith joined the White Sox after being drafted #1 overall in the Rule 5 draft and promptly added a kick changeup. The offering sits in the low 90s with an incredible amount of run and depth
LHH have no chance against it! pic.twitter.com/ITcq1Pdfuh
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) April 2, 2025
The changeup is a plus offering (109 Stuff+), but the remainder of Smith's arsenal is below average (92 Stuff+ on his four-seamer, 95 slider, 87 curveball).
Still, Smith has a projected FIP range of 4.27 to 4.73 for the 2025 season (average 4.52), and most projection systems prefer him to Ben Lively (projected FIP range of 4.56 to 5.21, average 4.8), giving Chicago the pitching advantage in the first half of this contest.
Chicago's offense hasn't been any better this season (72 wRC+) than 2024 (75 wRC+), and its bullpen — despite a decent start to the year (12th in K-BB%, 16th in xFIP) — still projects as the worst in the league after finishing 29th and 28th by the same metrics last season.
Still, I made the Sox +127 underdogs for the First Five Innings (F5) on Tuesday, and would bet their F5 moneyline to +135.
Alternatively, or in addition, play their F5 spread (+0.5 runs) to -112 (projected -122).
Pick: White Sox F5 Moneyline (bet to +135) | White Sox F5 +0.5 Runs (bet to -112)
Marlins vs. Mets Over/Under Prediction
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 7 -115o / -105u | +228 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 7 -115o / -105u | -285 |
Connor Gillispie (MIA) vs. Clay Holmes (NYM)
The Under has cashed in four consecutive games at Citi Field to begin the season (final scores of 5-0, 3-2, 2-1, and 2-0), but the Mets have gone 6-for-26 (.230) with runners in scoring position and stranded 27 baserunners over that stretch.
Still, the teams will play in frigid conditions on Tuesday: 43 degrees at first pitch (real feel of 27 degrees) with 15 mph winds blowing in from left-center field, lowering my projected total to 6.4 in a park that already favors pitchers. Bet the Under to 7 (-112).
Clay Holmes has shown spectacular stuff in his transition to the Mets' rotation (106 Stuff+, 110 Pitching+, 3.62 botERA), but has yet to make it through the fifth inning in his first two starts. I'd expect Holmes to push closer to 100 pitches (and six innings if he's efficient) in his third outing of 2025.
Holmes' new kick-change (112 Stuff+) should help him counteract lefties (career 2.96 xFIP vs. righties, 4.29 vs. lefties), and a considerable ground-ball rate (66.4% career) gives him an extremely high floor.
Connor Gillispie (projected FIP range of 4.74 to 5.16) projects as a replacement-level arm, but stuff models think he can be a serviceable No. 4 or No. 5 starter (97 Stuff+, 100 Location+, 4.44 botERA). He generated 11 whiffs in his start last week against the Mets:
Gillispie is a soft-tosser (averages 91-92 mph) for the current era, but he can get ahead with his fastball and keep hitters guessing with a four-pitch mix. His cutter should be handy to generate weak contact in Tuesday's conditions.
Lastly, both teams project better than average defensive units in my model. In the early going, the Marlins are tied for second (+8) and the Mets rank 10th (+3) in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).
Pick: Under 7.5 (bet to 7, -112)
Brewers vs. Rockies Over/Under Pick
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. Kyle Freeland (COL)
I set Tuesday's total in Colorado at 10.4 runs and would bet Over 10 to -105.
First pitch temperatures (69 degrees) are warm for April in Denver, and the park should play relatively close to its standard run-scoring environment, which is nearly 30% higher than the MLB average.
Freddy Peralta has performed well in three career starts at Coors Field while striking out half of the 48 batters he faced (12 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 5 BB, 24 K) but Kyle Freeland is a significant liability (5.11 xERA in 2024, 5.70 in 2023, 5.14 in 2022) whether at Coors (career 4.47 xFIP) or on the road (career 4.64 xFIP).
Neither offense has impressed (85 wRC+ for Milwaukee, 74 for Colorado), but their bullpens have been equally precarious; Brewers relievers rank 20th in K-BB% and 24th in xFIP, while Rockies relievers rank 27th by the same metrics.
Historically, low totals at Coors have been profitable to the Over; totals closing between 7 and 9.5 are 232-186-12 to the Over since 2005 (55.5% win, 8.4% ROI).
Such totals have also produced a 67-46-3 record (59.3% win, 16.1% ROI) at Coors in sub-60-degree temperatures.
Pick: Over 9.5 (bet to 10, -105)
Reds vs. Giants: Bet the Under
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs. Landen Roupp (SF)
