Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, April 22
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Tuesday, April 22
Mariners vs. Red Sox
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -110o / -110u | -135 |
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs. Brayan Bello (BOS)
Brayan Bello — Boston's Opening Day starter in 2024 — didn't pitch in spring training due to a right shoulder strain. He's set to make his 2025 MLB debut after four rehab starts in the minors, where he gave up up a high number of hits and runs (14 IP, 18 H, 12 R, 4 BB, 21 K) despite controlling the strike zone.
Bello ramped up to 71 pitches in his last outing; he struck out four of the final seven batters he faced, hitting 98 mph on the gun (career average of 95.9 mph) in the fifth inning.
Despite a two-year decline in Stuff+ rating (105 in his rookie season, 102 in 2023, and 97 in 2024), Bello's command has improved every year (Location+ up from 96 to 103 and 107 last season), and he showed career-bests in both Pitching+ (107) and botERA (3.85) last season.
Still, his xERA (4.56) showed a career-worst mark as Bello — and the entire Red Sox Staff — opted for sink or spin rather than four-seamers (4.8% usage in 2024, down from 20.7% in 2023). Bello's two-seamer (career 114 Stuff+) grades out as his best pitch and helps him maintain a high ground-ball rate (53.9% career).
Unfortunately, both his slider (95 Stuff+, down from 97 in 2023 and 106 in his rookie season) and changeup (84 Stuff+, down from 95 and 96) grade as below-average offerings by stuff, which is why Bello's improved command of those pitches (114 Location+ on the slider, 106 on the changeup, 103 on the sinker) is vital (101, 97 and 99 respectively in his rookie season).
However, it's worth noting that his slider in rehab looked significantly sharper than his slider throughout last season.
Improved infield defense should also help Bello to better results. Despite finishing fifth with 49 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) last season, Boston's outfield (+48) was elite, but its infield (-14 at catcher, -15 combined at the other non-pitcher spots) was a defensive disaster.
Carlos Narvaez (+2 DRS in 2025) is an upgrade defensively at catcher over Connor Wong (-14 DRS in 2024), and having Trevor Story (neutral in 2025, +20 combined since 2021) and Alex Bregman (+2 in 2025; +11 combined since 2021) as neutral to slightly above-average defenders on the left side of the infield is a significant upgrade over Rafael Devers (-9 in 2024, combined -38 since 2021) and David Hamilton (-4 at shortstop in 2024). Kristian Campbell (-3 DRS) has struggled in limited time at second base, however.
As I have mentioned numerous times earlier this season, I prefer Boston's lineup against right-handed pitching (projected 110 wRC+) as opposed to lefties (projected 102 wRC+), given the projected quality of its left-handed bats. And Seattle's Bryce Miller has shown both significant home/road splits and lefty/righty splits early in his career:
- 3.36 xFIP, 21.8% K-BB% vs. righties; 4.81 xFIP, 12.9% K-BB% vs. lefties
- 3.77 xFIP, 20% K-BB% at home; 4.41 xFIP, 14.2% K-BB% on the road
T-Mobile Park in Seattle has the lowest Park Factor for base hits (about 10-11% below the MLB average) due to poor sightlines for batters, and Mariners pitchers tend to look more vulnerable when hitters can see what's coming on the road.
Miller carries significant upside, with four above-average offerings by pitch modeling metrics. He has struggled with command this season (11.6% walk rate, 89 Location+, down from 6.1% and 103 career), and his velocity was down until his most recent start against the Reds (94.2 mph through his first three starts; 95.4 mph in Cincinnati).
I projected the Red Sox as -138 favorites and would bet their moneyline to -130. Additionally, I set the total at 8.46 runs, and would bet Under 9 to -110.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline (bet to -130) | Under 9 (bet to -110)
Phillies vs. Mets
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 100o / -120u | -125 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8 100o / -120u | +105 |
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs. Griffin Canning (NYM)
Through four starts, Cristopher Sanchez has delivered on the ace-level promise he showed in spring. He's displayed increased velocity across his entire arsenal (1.4 to 1.6 mph) that has led to both improved pitch modeling metrics (116 Stuff+ and a 3.16 botERA vs. 107 and 3.16 in 2024) and underlying results (2.64 xERA, down from 3.56, and a 10.4% increase in strikeout rate.)
If Sanchez can maintain a K-BB% in the mid twenties (16% career), alongside his elite ground-ball rate (56.9% career), he's going to be extremely difficult to score runs against, particularly for left-handed hitters (2.26 xFIP, 29.2% K-BB% in 2025).
Sanchez only throws three pitches — all three are plus offerings (115 Stuff+ sinker, 116 changeup, 117 slider). He's developed into a legitimate NL Cy Young contender and is under team control through 2030.
Griffin Canning was a typically efficient David Stearns signing (one year, $ 4.25 million). Statcast indicates that he has nearly earned his 3.43 ERA to date (3.87 xERA), and pitching models suggest that he (102 Location+) will improve his walk rate (11.4% vs. 8.5% career) in the future.
Historically, Canning has had a sharp slider (career 106 Stuff+), and he's throwing it more than ever before (36.5% vs. 27% career), even though the stuff rating on it (97) is down. His changeup (102 Stuff+) also grades out as good as it ever has in his career (94 career average).
Canning hasn't modified his pitch mix all that much — aside from the increased slider usage — but he has posted a career-best 54% ground-ball rate (40% career), which helped me notice that Canning has altered his delivery and raised his horizontal release points since joining the Mets this year.
I'm pretty sure this (in addition to variance) is the reason for Canning's new ground-ball titl:
If the new delivery helps Canning maintain a high ground-ball rate, he could remain a league-average pitcher and outperform his projections (projected FIP range of 4.22-4.57).
And although I give the Phillies the pitching advantage throughout this matchup — as I also prefer their bullpen (even though the Mets have better bullpen results this season) — the Mets have the better lineup, both offensively and defensively.
I give the Phillies a slight baserunning advantage; I project the Mets for a 116 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, compared to a projection of 112 for the Phillies against righties.
I set the total at 7.37 runs; bet Under 8 to -115.
I would bet the Mets at +120 or higher, compared to a projection of +108 — wait for that one to come into range before placing the bet.
Picks: Under 8 (bet to -115) | Mets Moneyline (wait for +120 or better)
Cardinals vs. Braves
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
undefined o / u | ||
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
undefined o / u | ||
Andre Pallante (STL) vs. Michael Petersen (ATL)
Books opened the line for this contest based upon an anticipated pitching matchup between Spencer Strider and Steven Matz, with some adjusting to the Cardinals' announcement of Andre Pallante instead of Matz.
