I hope everyone had a great weekend.
This is a special Monday, where we can bet MLB while simultaneously betting on the NBA and NHL playoffs. It's a great slate to start the week.
Make sure you take advantage of our Action Labs Player Props tool to add some extra value to the card. I've found two MLB pitchers who have value from a strikeout perspective today.
Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Tyler Wells under 4.5 Strikeouts (-175)
| Twins vs. Orioles | Twins -145 |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
At his absolute best, Tyler Wells can strike out just over a batter per inning. But he's not pitching at his absolute best and likely won't get five-plus innings to cash this line.
Wells managed five full innings and 72 pitches in his last start, but he still couldn't break the 4.5-strikeout threshold. He has yet to hit five strikeouts in the four starts he's made this year.
Through these first four starts, Wells' strikeout rate is down under 7.00 K/9. Except for his curveball, his K% on every pitch is down drastically from 2021.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
Wells really hasn't been solid at all. His Statcast page looks like an iceberg. Baltimore needs to rely on someone for innings, so they turn to below-average guys like Wells.
But the Orioles don't want Wells to "keep stretching out further than the five innings and 72 pitches he threw Wednesday against the Yankees." So the O's likely won't be relying on Wells to eat up innings or record strikeouts.
Minnesota has a high strikeout rate, but the offense is dangerous and should easily crush a replacement-level, four-seam pitcher.
Our Action Labs Projections mark Wells for just 2.1 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him staying under 4.00.
Either way, there's value on the under for Wells on Monday night.
Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (-175)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Daulton Jefferies over 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Rays vs. Athletics | Rays -160 |
| First Pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I think Daulton Jefferies could be slightly undervalued in this spot.
He's gone under this line in three of his first four starts this season, recording a lousy 5.59 K/9 in the process. But he went under in road starts against Philadelphia, Toronto, and San Francisco.
Those are tough teams to strikeout. The Rays are not.
As we know, the Rays are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the league. This season, the Rays are striking out 25.9% of the time against RHPs, good for third-highest in MLB. Tampa was ninth in that stat in 2021 (24.4%).
In terms of strikeout rate, we can compare the Rays to the Orioles. When Jeffries took on the O's in Oakland, he struck out six over six innings.
We can reasonably expect Jeffries to pick up four strikeouts over 4-5 innings in this matchup.
With Jeffries, expect a three-fastball mix (sinker, cutter, four-seam) with a changeup and curveball mixed in. The Rays generally mash fastballs, but they've been just league-average against the pitch this season (5.3 wFB).
Image credit: Baseball Savant
Our Action Labs projections mark Jefferies for 4.3 Ks today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 4.13.
I'll happily buy Jefferies at over 3.5 if the juice is less than -120.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
