Thursday is a day-heavy slate, but I've identified two starting pitcher props in the evening that provide value.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jordan Lyles Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-155)
| White Sox @ Orioles | Orioles -105 |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Jordan Lyles has made me plenty of money this season. He's cashed this number in 18 of 25 starts while putting together numbers that compare to his 2014 and 2019 seasons (his two highest fWAR marks to date).
Lyles may never reach a 24% strikeout rate again, but he'll get close enough. He's at 19.4% this season while recording 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. But he's mainly been able to cash strikeout totals by pitching better, earning more innings and creating more opportunities — he's averaging 5 2/3 innings per start this season.
Lyles will face a mercurial White Sox lineup. The South siders have the batted-ball statistics, but their launch angle is obscenely low, leading to an absence of extra-base hits. Their 45.5% ground-ball rate is the fourth-highest in baseball and sandwiches them in between the Nationals and Tigers.
However, the White Sox have managed to put the ball in play. They've posted the fourth-lowest strikeout mark against RHPs on the season (20.4%), ranking top-12 in both Z-Contact rate and O-Contact rate.
But those numbers have lagged a bit over the past month. The White Sox have posted the 17th-highest strikeout rate over the last month (21.8%) and allowed Spenser Watkins to punch out five Wednesday night when his line was just 2.5.
And earlier this season, Lyles walked into Guaranteed Rate Field and picked up four strikeouts over seven innings with a 30% CSW rate. He already has three plus-strikeout matchups, including:
- Elvis Andrus: 7 Ks in 34 PAs
- Josh Harrison: 5 Ks in 19 PAs
- AJ Pollack: 3 Ks in 13 PAs
Our Action Labs Projections mark Lyles for 4.8 strikeouts on Thursday, giving us plenty of value to back him at this low number.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-155)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Rockies @ Mets | Rockies +340 |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Ryan Feltner was the Rockies' No. 21 overall prospect. The Rox are high on his future, projecting him as a back-end rotational piece. But that says more about Colorado's pitching depth than it does Feltner.
Feltner was a fourth-round draft pick initially projected as a reliever. But all-in-all, he just doesn't have the stuff. His fastball has picked up a few ticks of velocity since his last stint in the majors, but it rarely touches 95 mph and has accumulated a +8 run value this season.
His secondary stuff is also a work in progress. Feltner's picked up some spin rate on his curveball, leading to slightly better secondary production (-1 run value).
But when your Baseball Savant page looks like this:
There's work to be done.
Overall, Feltner has cashed this number once in his last seven starts. He ranks below the 20th percentile of pitchers in swinging-strike rate (8.8%) and CSW rate (26.1%). He's recorded more than 10 K/9 twice in his rise through the minors (High-A and Triple-A), but hasn't eclipsed a 20% strikeout rate yet in the majors.
And this is a tough spot. The Mets are third in contact rate (78.5%) on the season and have posted the third-lowest strikeout rate over the last month (19.7%). They pair the latter stat with a whopping 137 wRC+ against RHPs during the stretch.
Our Action Labs Projections mark Feltner for just 3.4 strikeouts against the Mets Thursday night. I'll happily fade the Rookie at plus-money.
Pick: Under 3.5 Ks (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
