We have a fairly important baseball game tonight, which will be the last of the 2019 season no matter what happens. The term "must-win" is tossed around fairly casually, but it literally is a "must-win" scenario tonight.
The moneyline for Game 7 between the Nationals and Astros had been bouncing back and forth between Houston -130 and -135 since opening late last night.
Keep in mind that this game likely features some bettors hedging their World Series futures. But over the past couple of hours, we've seen two significant swings thanks to sharp action.
Odds as of Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Nationals vs. Astros Game 7 Sharp Report
Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke both have qualities that could scare bettors away tonight. Scherzer couldn't put his pants on just a couple of days ago, while Greinke has posted an ERA north of five this postseason.
It's Mad Max whom the public likes. Believe it or not, he was who the sharps initially targeted, too. As I mentioned before, the line had been bouncing around by a few cents for the first 12 hours.
A Steam Move on Washington from Sports Insights' Bet Signals then sent the line into uncharted territory shortly before noon ET. This particular wave of sharp action sent the Nats' line from +122 to +114, while the Astros fell from -132 to -124.
Since then, money has been flowing on the Astros. Remember, sharp bettors are playing prices, not teams. It's not uncommon for both sides of a game to see pro support.
After hitting -124, the Astros were getting 39% of bets and 37% of dollars. Our percentages now read 37% of bets, but 45% of dollars. This influx of cash has caused Houston's line push from a low-water mark of -124 to a new high of -137.
The total has also seen sharp action on both sides, with the over seeing the most recent boost from pros. The line has remained at 7.5, but juice on the over, which had reached +105 at some books overnight, is now around the standard -110 around the market.
