Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+137 | 8.5 -110/-110 | +1.5 -153 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-161 | 8.5 -110/-110 | -1.5 +127 |
Brayan Bello was a needed addition back into the Boston Red Sox rotation. He hasn't always blown hitters away, but is a stable force who can keep the ball on the ground and reduce the strain on the bullpen.
His opponent will be Grayson Rodriguez and the Baltimore Orioles. Rodriguez is similar to Bello in that he missed some time due to injury, but the O’s are happy to have him back.
Bello and Rodriguez may be polar opposites in terms of style, but Bello’s ability to manufacture grounders should be key here. Both lineups are comparable, so Boston holds value here on the moneyline.
Baltimore Orioles
Bello owns a 4.04 ERA and a 4.25 xERA. He has reduced his Average Exit Velocity over one mph since last season and is also allowing less hard contact. However, outside of forcing opponents to hit the ball on the ground, he hasn't done anything too flashy. That said, the Orioles hit a ton of fly balls, so Bello is the perfect antidote to Baltimore's offensive edge.
The Red Sox have a 93 wRC+ off of righties over the past month. They have a 24.3% strikeout rate and a 7.4% walk rate. The top-half of Boston's lineup does the heavy lifting. Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers have xwOBAs over .395, giving Boston a nice one-two punch. All in all, the Red Sox have five batters with a xwOBA over .320 off of righties in the past month.
The Red Sox own a bullpen xFIP of 3.61 with a 24.3% strikeout rate and walk rate below 8%. So, if Bello goes five or more innings, which he is more than capable of doing, the Red Sox have enough relief to back him.
Boston Red Sox
Rodriguez has a 3.20 ERA and an xERA of nearly 4.00. However, his ground-ball rate ranks in the 16th percentile. In addition, he walks more than 10% of hitters and owns a strikeout rate over 26%. Sure, the Red Sox don't walk much, but this is concerning for Rodriguez’s pitch count.
The O’s have seven active hitters with an xwOBA over .320, but have an 86 wRC+ in the past month as a team. They don't strike out much (21%), but that's not Bello’s bread and butter anyway.
The Orioles’ relief staff has struggled a bit in the past month. They have a 4.46 xFIP with a sub-20% strikeout rate and a walk rate over 10%. If Boston can be patient with Rodriguez, it has a massive edge in the bullpen.
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
Boston isn't necessarily the better team, and even though Bello isn't going to do anything over-the-top, he will keep the ball on the ground. After which, Boston's relievers should take care of business. Look for the Red Sox to keep this close and notch the win against Baltimore’s bullpen. Bet Boston from +140 to +115.
Pick: Boston Red Sox +140 | Play to +115
