Padres vs. Braves Odds
| Padres Odds | +125 |
| Braves Odds | -150 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
It has been a relatively slow start to the campaign for reigning World Series champion Atlanta, which enters this series 6 1/2 games back of the New York Mets in the NL East Division race.
The Braves will send ace Max Fried to the mound Friday to face the Padres. Fried has rounded into the dominant form we’re used to seeing after a slow start to the campaign.
Fried will be looking to win his fifth consecutive outing, but will face a tough matchup against Yu Darvish and San Diego, who have come flying out of the gates holding a 20-12 record.
So, can San Diego build upon it's excellent record and hand Fried a rare loss?
San Diego Padres
It has been a promising start to the campaign for the Padres. However, San Diego has already overachieved its expected win/loss mark by four and it does appear this lineup could be somewhat less potent than it appears on the surface.
The Padres hold the league's sixth-lowest expected batting average at .241, as well as a sixth lowest xSLG of .397 with a 36.7% hard-hit rate. As you would expect from a group that has managed solid run production with relatively average looking numbers at the plate, its batting average with runners in scoring position sits 16th at .249 and is higher than expected.
However, San Diego has fared better against left-handed pitching, hitting to a wRC+ of 110, and a wOBA of .322 overall. The Padres will look to build upon those strong rates when they face one of the league's best in Fried.
Darvish will take the mound for San Diego, and outside of a nine earned run thrashing in San Francisco, has been quite sharp this season. Throughout 33.1 innings Darvish holds an xERA of 3.56 overall.
His BB rate is down to 7.3 percent. However, Darvish's hard-hit rate is at 39.2% and his QOPA is down to 4.39 from the two previous seasons.
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta has started to show more promise at the plate of late. And obviously without diving into the numbers, this team is likely to be quite potent in that regard, specifically if Ronald Acuna Jr. can stay healthy and Austin Riley can keep taking steps forward.
Acuna Jr. sat out Wednesday's contest against Boston with groin soreness, but all indications are he will play in the series opener.
Atlanta has batted to a 13th-best wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and just a 19th best wRC+ of 98 overall. The Braves should likely trend upward with regard to the success against righties with the talent remaining on hand. Yet, they finished eighth and 11th in wOBA and wRC+ last season.
After two dreadful showings to start off his campaign, Fried's stuff has really looked sharp and begun to show more of his usual pinpoint command. Fried has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts, averaging 6.5 strikeouts per game over that span. He holds a K:BB ratio of 17.5, which is second best among qualified starters this season.
Fried has pitched to a sound 3.16 xERA and a strong QOPA of 4.70 this season. He's one of the premier pitchers in baseball and isn't offering us much reason to expect lesser results moving forward.
Padres-Braves Pick
San Diego appears due for regression with regard to its offensive success and a date with Fried could be the perfect setting to find a lesser offensive output.
The Padres have hit left-handed pitching more effectively, but they also haven't faced many showing the kind of form Fried has offered of late. I feel confident backing Fried to keep this Padres lineup to a modest offensive total, which should likely leave him in line for another win after another long outing.
Contrarily, Atlanta's lineup is likely in somewhat of a low water point and could prove a tough challenge for Darvish.
So, I think we are getting a good price to back the Braves Run Line of -1.5 at +150 odds and will make it my top pick.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+150 | Play to +140)
