It's hard to ask for a better slate of baseball than we are getting Saturday and Game 1 between the Padres (93-69) and Dodgers (98-64) looks like a very worthy anchor to the card.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto will make his playoff debut versus one of the league's top offenses, and the Japanese superstar is getting a lot of credit from oddsmakers, with the Dodgers priced at -135 in a matchup against Dylan Cease.
I'll outline my two favorite player props and predictions for Saturday's excellent matchup with the Padres vs. Dodgers.
Nick Martin's Padres vs Dodgers Player Props
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 Earned Runs (+100, bet365)
- Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130, bet365)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Player Prop
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 Earned Runs (+100)
The Dodgers' starting rotation doesn't feature any lefties to throw at San Diego in this series, which could prove to be a problem given the Padres' tremendous work against right-handed pitchers this season.
The Padres finished the year with a third-best wRC+ of 116 against right-handed pitching. They struck out less than any other team versus righties (17.8%) and held a BB/K ratio of 0.40. They also owned the lowest soft contact rate in baseball at 14.5% and the highest line drive rate (21.5%).
San Diego did face Yamamoto once in the regular season and was successful in generating three runs across five innings, with a 58% hard-hit rate.
In four outings since returning to the lineup, Yamamoto has pitched to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP. He holds a Pitching+ rating of 107, and has also allowed an xBA of .271 in that span.
It's unlikely that Yamamoto will be pushed too far into this game, given the fact that the Dodgers feature a fully rested bullpen. He did work five innings last time out, and you have to imagine if the outing is going smoothly, Dave Roberts would love to get five innings from Yamamoto, given the state of his rotation.
The Padres' highly disciplined lineup has been very effective against righties and won't make it easy for Yamamoto to settle into the first playoff start of his career in this matchup.
While it wouldn't be surprising to see Yamamoto pitch a gem here, he still looks to be getting too much credit to be priced at +100 to allow two or more earned runs in this matchup.
Jackson Merrill Player Prop
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Merrill has quickly honed quite a reputation for his clutch hitting and certainly built on the prestige of his rookie season in his first taste of postseason action versus Atlanta. In seven PAs versus the Braves, Merill went 3-for-7. Five of those seven PAs ended with hard-hit balls.
Among batters to have 400 PAs versus right-handed pitching this season, Merrill ranked ninth with a slugging rate of .547. He became far more effective as the season wore along, though.
In 191 post-All-Star break PAs versus righties, he slugged .636 with a .307 batting average. He held a hard-hit rate of 44.6% in that span, ranking one spot above Yordan Alvarez's 44.5% among qualified batters.
