The New York Mets woke up in the latter innings of Game 1 on Saturday, and they now hold home-field advantage over the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS.
The Phillies desperately need a win before the series shifts to Citi Field. That's my narrative for my correlated Phillies vs Mets parlay for Game 2 on Sunday, October 6.
Sean Paul's Phillies vs Mets MLB Parlay for Game 2
- Phillies -1.5 (+130)
- Kyle Schwarber o1.5 total bases (+110)
- Cristopher Sanchez o4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Parlay Odds: +650 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Phillies -1.5 (+130)
Luis Severino will take the mound for the Mets as they hope to expand their series lead to 1-0, with the series heading back to New York on Tuesday. Severino had a strong year in Queens by giving the Mets 182 innings this year. That's a pretty solid deal for someone the Mets were hoping could stay healthy and he exceeded expectations.
He’s certainly changed his pitching style from his days as one of the young, promising aces in the sport who possessed elite power stuff to a highly-paid, slightly above-average innings eater. The most obvious sign of Severino's diminished stuff is his 7.9 K/9.
Moreover, Severino has surrendered three or more runs in each of his past three outings, including his wild-card start against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Phillies faced Severino in two of those aforementioned starts, so they've gotten to him recently.
Postseason isn’t a strength of Severino’s, historically, posting a 5.09 ERA in 49 postseason innings.
The Mets offense has been missing in action during the postseason outside of the ninth inning of the Wild Card clinching win against the Brewers.
Philadelphia's offense also greatly out-performed the Mets' offensive outfit in September, posting a 105 wRC+ compared to a 96 wRC+. Most of the Phillies' offensive output comes via the long ball. They posted the third-most homers in September and had a .184 isolated power, which ranked behind just Arizona and the Dodgers.
I'll grab the plus money line on the Phillies run line. They now enter desperation mode after squandering Zach Wheeler's dominant Game 1 outing. I'd be surprised if Philly doesn't come ready to light up Severino quickly.
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Very few hitters shine in the big moments more than Kyle Schwarber, who started the Phillies postseason off with a bang with a leadoff homer. Schwarber is the only hitter in the Phillies lineup who looked engaged in their Game 1 loss. He recorded two of their three hits, and they wouldn't have scored if it weren't for Schwarber's heroics.
The 31-year-old masher boasts plenty of playoff experience, playing in 67 postseason games and hitting 21 homers in those games.
I wanted to find an avenue to fade Severino in more ways than the Phillies run line, so I’ll gladly take Kyle Schwarber's O1.5 total bases. The ideal scenario for the prop to hit is simple: we need another "Schwarbomb."
Sure, hitting a homer is easier said than done, but Schwarber is much more than just a power hitter. He hit .248 this year, which is pretty good by his standards.
Additionally, Schwarber is the second most experienced Phillies batter against Severino, going 3-for-10 with a pair of doubles.
Cristopher Sanchez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Despite a mediocre stretch in July/August, Cristopher Sanchez is back in the form that earned him an All-Star nod in July. Entering this start, the Phillies southpaw pitched to a 2.83 ERA in his final seven regular season outings.
Similar to Severino, Sanchez faced the opposition twice in his final three outings, pitching 12 Innings with three runs and 14 strikeouts.
Speaking of strikeouts, that's what I'll target for a Sanchez-related prop. The books knew what they were doing with Sanchez's strikeout prop, which sits at 4.5 K's. The Phillies sinker-balling southpaw exceeded 4.5 strikeouts in six of his last eight starts, and he struck four batters out in the two starts he didn't crack 5+.
The last time Sanchez recorded fewer than four punchouts came against the Dodgers on August 6th. It's been two months exactly since Sanchez had a complete clunker in the strikeout department.
He's a ground ball pitcher by throwing sinkers 47% of the time, but his elite 98th-percentile chase rate bodes well for strikeouts.
