Phillies vs. Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +119 | 8 -110/-110 | -143 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -141 | 8 -110/-110 | +120 |
The Philadelphia Phillies have been red hot in May and now hold the best record in baseball behind a potent lineup and solid pitching. Aaron Nola will take the bump Tuesday, and as decent as he is, he has not thrown deep into games in May. His opponent will be José Buttó and the New York Mets.
Buttó has been slightly better than Nola has in May. Nola is the better of the two starters, but at the moment, the gulf is not too wide. Add on a comparable New York lineup and a better New York relief staff, and the Mets should hold some value in this game.
Let's break it down in our Phillies vs. Mets preview and pick.
Philadelphia Phillies
Nola is a savvy veteran who has now been around the block. He has a 3.67 ERA and an xERA that is right around the same. His Average Exit Velocity, though, is the highest it has been in his career. He is walking more hitters than he had in the last few years and is not striking out hitters as much as he did before either. To round off April, Nola provided back-to-back eight-inning starts. Since then, he has thrown 9 2/3 innings total in his last two starts.
The Phillies' lineup has been smoking the baseball, especially when facing a righty. This lineup holds a walk rate over 9% and a strikeout rate under 20% against righties in the last month. This patience and solid contact has led them to a team 132 wRC+. They have 10 bats with a .320+ xwOBA in the last month off righties, including both catchers. Trea Turner is on the Injured List, but this team has not missed a step.
The bullpen has not been as ironclad, however. Yes, the Phillies have a team 3.77 xFIP in relief in the last month, but their walk rate is above 9% with only three active pitchers below a 4.00 xFIP. If Nola does not get past the fifth inning, there could be some concern for the Phillies here.
New York Mets
Buttó owns a 3.00 ERA against a 4.23 xERA this season. His Average Exit Velocity is about the same as Nola’s, but Buttó will allow harder contact more often. The Mets’ biggest gripe with him is walks, with Buttó posting a 12.6% walk rate thus far. That said, he strikes out a higher percentage of batters than Nola. In two starts in May, he has 11 innings under his belt with a 3.27 ERA. Buttó's trajectory is better for the time being than Nola’s.
The Mets’ lineup has been flying under the radar against righties. They have a 106 wRC+ with an 8.2% walk rate and 20.8% strikeout rate in the last month. They have seven batters above a .330 xwOBA off righties in the last month, with two others — Starling Marte and J.D. Martinez — above .310. This lineup can hold its own against Nola, especially given the way he has thrown lately.
The Mets have the better relief staff. Since April 14, they have a team 3.36 xFIP. While they walk hitters, they own a 32.6% strikeout rate out of the bullpen. They also only have one arm above a 4.00 xFIP.
Phillies vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Phillies have a great starter on the bump during this game, but Buttó can contend with him. Meanwhile, the Mets have more than enough in the lineup to get the job done against Nola. New York also has a far better relief corps.
Take the Mets as home underdogs, and play them from +120 to -105.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (+124 via FanDuel | Bet to -105)
