Rays vs. Angels Odds
| Rays Odds | +110 |
| Angels Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
If you didn't stay up for the West Coast games Tuesday, you probably missed the no-hitter thrown by Angels left-handed rookie Reid Detmers.
It was just Detmers' 11th start in the majors following an August call-up the previous season. While Detmers was lights out, the Angels' hitters were just equally as dominant at the plate, pounding out 12 runs on 18 hits.
Coming into this series, the Rays won nine out of their last 10 games against the Angels. However, we're starting to learn that something feels inherently different with this Los Angeles team compared to recent years.
And while I'd typically look to fade the Angels off such a spirited performance, I think the Rays have some fatigue issues as they near the end of a 10-game West Coast trip.
Tampa Bay Rays
After winning the first six games, the Rays have lost three in a row and look like they're ready for a day off on Thursday. However, a 6-3 road trip is quite a success and I'm sure the Rays would even sign for a 6-4 finish. That's why I'm not running to the window to back the visitors in this spot.
Tampa Bay will start left-hander Shane McClanahan in the series finale. In six starts, McClanahan is 2-2 with a 3.06 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His advanced numbers align with his traditional ERA, given his 3.00 xERA and 3.11 FIP.
McClanahan's done a tremendous job in striking out the opposition. Per FanGraphs, he's increased his K/9 ratio from 10.29 to 13.08 in just his second season in the majors. He's also shown good command for a young pitcher, evidenced by his 2.51 BB/9 ratio.
However, he tends to give up the long ball, as he's allowing 1.39 home runs per nine innings. McClanahan has an HR/FB rate of 29.4%, which suggests you might earn a trip around the bases if you can get the ball up in the air against him. As a result, it's no surprise that opposing hitters have a 9.9% barrel rate against him.
What interests me about McClanahan is that while his strikeout rate suggests he's very good at missing bats, he can run into trouble when hitters make solid contact. Thus, I think the Angels pose a formidable threat against him because of their ability to barrel up the baseball.
Los Angeles ranks seventh with a 13.9-degree launch angle which means they do an excellent job of hitting line drives. Although McClanahan has a plus-fastball (37.4%) which averages 97 mph, it's 5.2 runs below average. Furthermore, opposing batters hit .406 against the pitch with a .750 SLG.
His best pitch is his changeup (19.4%), and he's yet to allow a hit with it. The problem is the Angels love to hit the changeup as they're 5.1 runs above average when facing the pitch.
Los Angeles Angels
For the first time in a while, it looks like the Angels finally have enough pitching to sustain them through an entire season. There's certainly a nice blend within their staff that includes a prodigious hitter and the reigning AL MVP. That player, of course, is the Angels right-hander, Shohei Ohtani, who gets the start.
Through 26 1/3 innings, Ohtani is 3-2 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. His advanced numbers suggest he remains slightly undervalued, given his 2.49 xERA and a 1.52 FIP.
Ohtani's done a tremendous job cutting down on his walks from 3.04 BB/9 in 2021 to 1.71 BB/9 this season. That's quite an improvement considering that he's also increased his K/9 ratio from 10.77 to 14.01 overall.
What's remarkable is that he's still only 27 years old and has probably yet to reach his prime as a pitcher. His 2021 season was the first time he logged more than 100 innings in the big leagues, and after last year, it looks like the Angels finally have a plan to keep him healthy for the duration of the season.
Ohtani's coming off a start where he pitched seven shutout innings in an 8-0 Angels' victory over the Red Sox. According to Alex Cora, it was the best performance by an opposing pitcher he's seen against the Red Sox since he became manager in 2018.
In his last three appearances, Ohtani has allowed two runs and fewer than three runs in four of his five starts. I'm unwilling to fade a pitcher of this quality that's in a groove. And given the healthy competition that's brewing within the rotation, I'd look for Ohtani to step back on the mound and show that he's still the alpha of the Los Angeles staff.
Rays-Angels Pick
I was initially going to pass on this game until I did more digging into this situational spot for the Rays. According to our ActionLabs database, the Angels are a perfect 3-0 when riding a three-game winning streak with Ohtani on the mound.
Tampa Bay is also just 3-6 coming off a loss when McClanahan gets the start.
However, here's the stat that caught my attention: in the final game of a 10-game road trip, teams on a three-game losing streak are just 18-34 for a loss of 9.71 units. Since 2018, this trend has been 1-9 for a loss of 6.94 units.
The stars are starting to align for Los Angeles, so I like it to continue to take advantage of this weary Tampa Bay team.
After shopping around, I found WynnBet has the current best price on the board with the Angels at -123, while BetMGM is offering a touch higher at -130 odds on the same bet.
That said, I think Los Angeles is worth a look in this price range.
Pick: Los Angeles ML (-123)
