The San Diego Padres (72-52) and New York Mets (73-52) play the third game of their four-game series on Saturday at PETCO Park. First pitch is set for 8:40 p.m. ET on MLB.TV. Having split the first two games of the series, with each team winning a game by a margin of 5+ runs, today's game gives each side the chance to potentially win a big series by a score of 3-1.
The Mets sit 2.5 games behind division rival Atlanta for the third and final Wild Card spot, while also 5.5 games behind the Padres for the second spot. There's a lot of importance to every remaining game for both teams, making this one of the most exciting and implication-heavy series of the weekend.
David Peterson gets the start for New York, while Michael King gets the ball for San Diego. Let's get to my Mets vs. Padres for this Saturday.
Mets vs. Padres Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-152 | 7.5 -108 / -112 | -1.5 +146 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+128 | 7.5 -108 / -112 | +1.5 -176 |
Mets vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| Michael King | Stat | David Peterson |
|---|---|---|
| 11-6 | W-L | 7-1 |
| 3.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.18 / 3.43 | ERA /xERA | 3.00 / 5.16 |
| 3.33 / 3.39 | FIP / xFIP | 4.27 / 4.28 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 20.0% | K-BB% | 8.7% |
| 39.8% | GB% | 53.9% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 102 | Location+ | 97 |
Justin Perri's Mets vs Padres Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Adore Francisco Lindor
In the last two months there has only been one player in the National League to accrue a fWAR of over 3.0, that player is Fransisco Lindor. The next best mark in that span, Ketel Marte, has a mark about 20% lower than what the Mets' superstar shortstop has been able to produce in the last couple months.
How has that translated to betting? In the last 10 games, Lindor has gone over 1.5 total bases in seven of his contests and over 2.5 in six. Zooming out further, he has gotten a hit in 83% of his last 30 games and cashed over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in 67% of them, as well!
The Mets have had a solid season but have tailed off a bit in August after the magic of Grimace faded a bit. They opened August with a series loss to the Angels, a 2-1 series win over the Rockies and then got swept by Seattle before dropping a home series to the Athletics. They've bounced back a bit since, winning consecutive series against the Marlins and Orioles, but only doing so by a score of 2-1, which has hampered their ability to climb back into a Wild Card spot. The bottom line, though, is that this New York team continues to be their own biggest enemy, and they are an untrustworthy betting option.
The Mets are underdogs today, a scenario in which they are 23-27 on the moneyline and 26-24 against the spread. Some quick math there… they've only had three games as underdogs where they lost by one run and, therefore, this is a team where the underdog value most likely lies on the moneyline.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Michael King Reigns Supreme
Make no mistake about it, Michael King is currently one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball right now. In his last 14 starts, he has struck out 100 batters in 80 innings while surrendering just 21 earned runs. His Called Strikes + Whiff rate (CSW%) is fifth-best in the majors this season at almost 33% of his pitches! When King's got his best stuff, he is royally untouchable.
King has struck out 6+ batters in 10 of his last 11 starts and his strikeout prop line sits exactly at 6.5 with slight juice to the over. He has averaged 7.25 strikeouts per start at home compared to 6.2 strikeouts per start on the road. The Mets rank in the middle of the pack with the 16th best K% at 22.1%.
The Padres have been one of the best offenses of the summer. Since the start of July they rank fifth in baseball in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) and have the second lowest strikeout rate of just 16.9%. They are putting the ball in play, which has lead to a high rate of scoring and a 69-57-2 O/U record. At home they have gone 40-25-1 O/U, which is mostly due to a combination of lower totals at their home park combined with their plus offensive year.
San Diego actually has a better record away from home this season, which makes some sense when you consider that PETCO park is one of the best pitching environments in baseball. Opposing pitchers are able to come in and see their pitches break a bit more, which usually keeps games close and makes it harder for the Padres to win in their own park. Against the spread, the Padres are 66-62 overall this season but 29-37 at home while 34-44 as the favorite.
Mets vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis: San Diego First Five Innings Spread
San Diego opened as a -135 favorite last night, and was bet all the way up to a -152 favorite, which is where the line currently sits. The Padres are one of the best in baseball at stringing wins together, they're 43-29 when they've won the game prior, second only to the Yankees.
Both teams have been been scoring and allowing runs at a higher rate, each seeing an average of over nine runs in each of their last five games. The total has not moved much from the opening line of 7.5, and with cooler weather expected in San Diego tonight, there should be good value on a lower scoring game.
The value in this game is in trusting Michael King to continue his elite form, as opposed to a Mets starter that hasn't seen a top-10 team in months.
Moneyline
The Padres are 8-3 at home this month while the Mets have appeared to struggle in their West Coast road trips thus far this season. In August alone New York got swept in Seattle and lost a series to the Angels in LA. They also needed a rubber game win to secure a road series against the Rockies. This should be a spot where the market is correct in its 20-cent move and the Padres should win.
Run Line (Spread)
There's probably a decent chance for a the underdog to cover the spread here, as the Padres have seen 10 of their 44 wins as favorites come by just one run. The Mets have only seen 3 of their 27 underdog losses come at one run though, so if you want to bet the run line, it's probably going to be to increase potential ROI on the Padres for a chance at a multi run win.
Over/Under
The total was almost my play for this writeup, and I was leaning under, but went with trusting Micheal King in a more isolated approach. Both bullpens should be rested and ready to go today, which would create a higher leveraged chance on the full game total to go under rather than the first half and, thus, the opposite for the over. There's a solid chance that once the starters leave this game, that the scoring could grind to a halt.
