Aces are wild on this glorious Saturday slate, but I've got my eyes on two in particular who are in line for excellent outings today. Let's get this weekend off on the right foot and dive into my top two player pops for the slate.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Yu Darvish to Record a Win (-140/+105)
| Padres @ Nationals | Padres -300 |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: -140 | DraftKings |
Yu Darvish has been on an absolute tear since the calendar flipped to May. Since then, 13 of his 16 starts have been quality starts.
Furthermore, in the three starts where he allowed more than three runs, he still went at least six innings in two of them. So if there's any pitcher almost guaranteed to give us the length needed to record a win, it is Darvish.
What's made him so successful this season is his command. Darvish's walk rate is among the top nine percent of all qualified pitchers. It's also been reflected in his WHIP, which sits at 1.00.
While the Nationals lineup has not exactly fallen off since the trade of Juan Soto and Josh Bell, they don't have the firepower to keep up with the Padres today. Washington starter Anibal Sanchez has been hit like a pinball this year, and I expect San Diego to pull away while Darvish turns in another quality start.
Pick: Yes -140
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-150)
| Phillies @ Mets | Mets -200 |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: +110 | Bet365 |
The New York Mets may have the third lowest strikeout rate in the majors since the trade deadline, but this total is far too low for Aaron Nola.
Nola has returned to Cy Young form, and his duel against Jacob deGrom should be one for the ages. If he wants to keep up with his counterpart, the strikeouts will need to rack up.
Despite the matchup, there should be little concern about Nola going over this total. He's faced this Mets lineup twice this season. In the first outing, he recorded five strikeouts, but in the second, he had nine.
Not only has he already gone over against the Mets, but that over is a part of the 17 starts that he's hit his strikeout prop over this season. His over percentage of 77.3 gives us implied odds of -339 that he will go over again.
That is exponential value on this plus-money line.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
