With all 30 MLB teams playing today, our Action Network MLB staff has found three best bets worth tailing. William Boor has found value on Zac Gallen in his start against the Pirates, Michael Arinze is fading Trevor Williams on the road against the Dodgers, and Tanner McGrath is backing Adam Wainwright against the Cubs on Sunday night baseball. Check out their picks and analysis below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
William Boor: The D-backs at the Pirates isn't the most enticing matchup on the board, but Zac Gallen has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Arizona is 7-2 in his nine starts and the 26-year-old right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA in three road starts.
Gallen has stifled opponents, and a quick look at his advanced metrics shows that his surface numbers are the real deal. He ranks among the league leaders in xwOBA (91st percentile), xSLG (91st percentile), xERA (91st percentile) and xBA (92nd percentile). Simply put, opponents have had a tough time generating offense against Gallen. While all those numbers are impressive, this bet is just about the first five innings, so let's dig in a bit there.
Through the first five innings this season, Gallen has pitched to a 1.64 ERA. Couple that with the fact that the Pirates average just 1.69 runs per game at home over the first five innings, and this is an enticing spot to back the D-backs.
While the D-backs don't have the most explosive offense in baseball, and they haven't been great over the first five innings (2.61 runs per game on the road) either, Pirates starter Zach Thompson hasn't exactly been posting a ton of zeros.
Overall, Thompson has pitched to a 5.17 ERA, and although he's been a bit unlucky, his 4.48 xERA isn't overly impressive either. When isolating just the first five innings, Thompson's ERA goes up to 5.54 ERA. The D-backs have also hit right-handers a bit better than lefties this season, so that should help a bit too. This opened at -145, and I'd play it down to -160.
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Michael Arinze: Given Trevor Williams' home-away splits, I want no part of him in this spot. In four outings at home, he's 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA and a 2.70 FIP. However, on the road he's 0-3 with a 5.02 ERA and a 4.54 FIP in five appearances. Those numbers mirror what we've seen from Williams throughout a career that includes over 600 innings. He has a 3.62 ERA at home vs. a 5.24 ERA on the road.
His head-to-head numbers are also a reason for concern. As a result, I think it makes sense to isolate Williams and target him in the game's first five innings.
According to our ActionLabs database, Williams is just 1-11 (-9.61 units) against the first five runline in his last 12 starts as a road underdog.
That's a trend I can certainly get behind, so I'll look to play the Dodgers at -0.5/-120 over at DraftKings.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Tanner McGrath: I'm not betting against the Redbirds in an Adam Wainwright start — especially against the Cubs in Chicago, where he's been so thoroughly dominant over the past two seasons.
Meanwhile, look for the Cardinals to tee off on Justin Steele's fastball and hopefully take advantage of a thin bullpen, given Steele's short expected start.
Meanwhile, I'm expecting Wainwright to give serious length in this one, allowing us to stay away from the Cardinals' crazy bullpen.
Plus, although Wainwright doesn't strike many guys out, I would target his strikeout total on Sunday night. The Cubs strike out at a top-10 rate against RHPs, and Waino will get six or seven innings to strike out five or six cubs.
Look to target the Cardinals at anything better than -140 and Waino's strikeout total at anything better than 5.5 (-120).
