Editor's Note: Tuesday's game between the Marlins and Rockies was postponed.
A new week of the season is upon us following the long, holiday weekend, and we'll close the books on the second month of the season with a full slate of games today.
There are 16 games total, including a doubleheader between the Twins and Tigers. Our analysts have keyed in on three of those games, with two totals and one live, road underdog.
Here are our three best bets from Tuesday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Jules Posner: The Kansas City Royals look to pull even in their series with the Cleveland Guardians and the pitching matchup could be one of the more underrated of Tuesday night.
Daniel Lynch has been pretty solid on the road for the Royals so far this season. He has a 3.55 road ERA with a 4.04 road FIP. This includes a rough first road outing at the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Guardians' offense has been in a slump and is 19th in team wRC+ at home against LHP in May.
The Royals' offense has been hot on this road trip, posting the second-best team wRC+ on the road vs RHP over the past three weeks, but Cal Quantrill is only allowing a .169 BA against at home this season.
The Royals' pen has been shaky over the past couple of weeks, but the Guardians' pen has been one of the better units over that same time period.
Look for both starters to seize control of this game. The under is presently 9, but is still up for grabs at 9.5 on some books. However, if you get get under 9 in plus territory, that would be the play.
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
DJ James: Both Kevin Gausman and Lucas Giolito are the most consistently reliable starting pitchers for the Blue Jays and White Sox, respectively, and neither offense has hit right-handed pitching well this season — particularly in May.
The White Sox come in at 96 wRC+ against right-handers this month, and they will have trouble manufacturing runs against a pitcher of Gausman's caliber. He owns a 2.63 xERA on the season with a walk rate of only 2.3% and a chase rate in the 100th percentile (47.1%). The White Sox are worst in the league in chase rate at 31.3%.
Giolito will also be able to go deep into the game. He owns a 2.63 ERA and 3.84 xERA, so he has been a bit lucky at times. 3.84 is still solid, and considering that Toronto owns a worse wRC+ mark at 89, he should mow down Blue Jay batters with ease.
Each bullpen has enough arms to keep this game within reach so take the under at 7.5 (+100), and play to 7 (-110).
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Editor's Note: Tuesday's game between the Marlins and Rockies was postponed.
Anthony Dabbundo: The Miami Marlins have a positive run differential despite a 19-27 record due to a ton of bad luck and variance against them in one run games. The Rockies are the only team in baseball that is top five in both hitting and pitching luck, based on expected batted ball outcomes (xwOBA) compared to actual outcomes (wOBA).
Rockies starter Germán Marquez has seen a significant drop off in his stuff this season. He’s not missing bats and he's allowing hard contact in the zone. His swinging strike rate has plummeted, his hard hit rate and zone contact percentages are way up and there's just not much positive to say about the Colorado right-hander.
He has the highest expected metrics of his career and won't benefit from pitching at Coors Field tonight. It’s hard not to fade Marquez as a favorite against a decent lineup and better opposing pitcher.
Edward Cabrera displayed some very concerning walk rates last season but he's also displayed elite stuff that can generate a lot of strikeouts and keep balls out of the air in a difficult park to pitch in.
I like the Marlins at +105 or better as they shouldn't be underdogs given the 2022 version of Marquez throwing for Colorado.
